TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 7:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses exclusively on the second half performance of the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers in their upcoming football game. Each market evaluates different point differentials to determine the outcome based solely on the points scored after halftime.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified football game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers. Each market has a specific threshold: if the LA Chargers win the second half by more than a designated number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 13.5), that market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the LV Raiders win the second half by more than a designated number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these resolutions. All markets are independent, and the outcome of one does not affect the others.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own analysis. If sportsbook odds suggest a very different spread than what’s seen here, it could indicate disagreement about the likely outcome of the second half. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, though this isn't always the case.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Raiders-Chargers 2nd half. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the spread will land on that side at the end of the game. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The more traders participate, the more efficient the pricing becomes, and the closer the market price should align with the true probability of each spread.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the second half of the Raiders-Chargers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and the contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls on the buy or sell side of each contract. It’s important to monitor the game’s progress leading up to the final whistle to understand how the market is likely to settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Raiders or the Chargers would likely cause significant movement. In-game events, such as a dominant performance by one team in the first half, or a crucial turnover, could also rapidly shift the market’s perception of the likely second-half spread. Changes in weather conditions, or even significant shifts in public sentiment, could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.