TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a new music release over its first week of availability, measuring how widely it is consumed through streaming platforms. The outcome depends on whether the release meets specific listener engagement thresholds within a defined timeframe.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple streaming thresholds for the song "Luh Leakyz Vol. 1" by Yeat during the tracking week of October 23, 2026, to October 29, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct streaming milestone, ranging from above 1 million to above 20 million streams. All markets resolve based on data reported by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not influence or endorse the market outcomes. The U.S. is the sole jurisdiction considered for these determinations.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to external analyst forecasts, as there is limited publicly available data predicting streaming numbers for this specific album release so far in advance. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or expert opinions. This market reflects what traders believe is the probability of the streaming target being met, potentially factoring in Yeat’s previous release performance, social media buzz, and overall music industry trends.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders are constantly posting bids (prices they’re willing to buy at) and asks (prices they’re willing to sell at). The market price reflects the point of highest buying and selling interest. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of the outcome occurring – a higher price indicates a greater perceived chance of the streaming target being exceeded. As more traders participate, the price should converge towards a more accurate reflection of the true probability.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official streaming numbers for “Luh Leakyz Vol. 1” during the specified tracking week are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total streams across major streaming platforms. The market will determine whether the album achieved over 3,000,000 streams during that week, and payouts will be made accordingly to contract holders.
Several factors could significantly impact the odds in this market. Unexpected positive or negative press surrounding Yeat or the album release could shift trader sentiment. Major promotional events, like music video releases or festival appearances, could also drive increased streaming activity. Changes in the broader music landscape, such as the emergence of a competing artist or a shift in popular music genres, could also influence the market. Finally, any news regarding potential delays or changes to the album’s release schedule would likely cause volatility.
