TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above $2.75M
- Kalshi
Above $2.75M - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Closed: Jun 24, 9:51 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Lucian Freud's Woman in a Grey Sweater will sell for above $3.5 million at Sotheby's upcoming auction. On Kalshi, the probability of the lot exceeding that price threshold stands at 96.0%. Resolution will be determined by the actual hammer price achieved during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, at 1:00 PM EDT, as reported by Sotheby's. Watch the auction results on June 24, 2026, when the lot goes under the hammer to see if it reaches the $3.5 million mark.
Kalshi
The market contains multiple outcomes based on progressive price thresholds for the lot sold price of "Woman in a Grey Sweater" by Lucian Freud at the Sotheby's live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the final hammer price exceeds its specified threshold ($2.5M, $2.75M, $3M, $3.25M, $3.5M, $3.75M, $4M, $4.25M, or $4.5M). Resolution is verified from the amount displayed under "Lot Sold" on the Sotheby's website. If the price is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of sale.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader conviction about the hammer price, whereas art market analysts and auction house estimates rely on comparable sales, provenance, and condition assessments. Markets aggregate dispersed information from active traders, while expert forecasts tend to be static until updated. For this Freud work, the prediction market provides a dynamic, continuously updated probability that can diverge from pre-auction estimates as new information or bidder interest emerges closer to the June 2026 sale.
The market resolves on Jun 25, 2026, following the live Sotheby's auction of the Woman in a Grey Sweater on June 24, 2026, at 1:00 PM EDT. Resolution is determined by the final hammer price achieved during the auction. Traders who correctly predicted whether the sale price would exceed $2.75 million receive payouts based on their position size and the contract terms on Kalshi.
Key catalysts include Sotheby's pre-sale estimates and condition reports, comparable Freud sales at auction, high-profile bidder registration or withdrawals, and broader art market trends. Economic conditions affecting collector demand, currency fluctuations, and major museum acquisitions of similar works can shift sentiment. Media coverage of the artist or the specific painting, authentication updates, or changes in provenance documentation may also influence trader expectations. Auction house presale estimates released closer to June 2026 typically create significant price movement on prediction markets.
