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LPGA: NW Arkansas Championship Second Round Leader
kalshi
polymarket

Who will lead the NW Arkansas Championship Round 2?

Volume:
$1,551

Yuna Nishimura

 - Kalshi

Yuna Nishimura - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Closed: Sep 26, 8:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yuna Nishimura

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$710
N/A
N/A
$698
1w 4d 6h
Yes
kalshi

Hye Jin Choi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$842
N/A
N/A
$842
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Hye-Jin Choi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

A-Lim Kim

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

A Lim Kim

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Adela Cernousek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Adela Cernousek

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Akie Iwai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Akie Iwai

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Alexa Pano

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Alexa Pano

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Amanda Doherty

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Amanda Doherty

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Amy Yang

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Amy Yang

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Ana Belac

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ana Belac

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Andrea Lee

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Andrea Lee

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Angel Yin

View
0%
81%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Angel Yin

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Anne Chen

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Anne Chen

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
polymarket

Ashleigh Buhai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ashleigh Buhai

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 6h
No
Total markets: 25 of 267

Description

This prediction market asks users to forecast which golfer will be the leader after the second round of the 2026 NW Arkansas Championship. Resolution is based on the lowest cumulative score to par, with tiebreakers defined for scenarios where multiple players are tied.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents a series of binary markets for individual players, while Polymarket offers a single market for the overall leader. This difference in scope impacts trading strategy.Hero tip: Be aware that Kalshi requires you to correctly predict *which* player will lead, while Polymarket only requires you to identify the eventual leader, regardless of who it is.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the player with the lowest cumulative score to par after Round 2, with detailed tiebreakers. "This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 2 of the main tournament...with the lowest cumulative score to par."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if a specific player is the leader at the end of Round 2. "If [Player Name] is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Walmart NW Arkansas Championship presented by P&G, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 2 of the main tournament at the 2026 NW Arkansas Championship with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 NW Arkansas Championship is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, or if an official Round 2 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to "Yes" if the specified golfer is the sole leader at the end of Round 2 of the 2026 Walmart NW Arkansas Championship presented by P&G. If multiple participants share the lead, "Yes" positions receive a payout of $1 divided by the number of tied leaders (rounded down to the nearest cent), while "No" positions receive the remainder of the contract value. The event organizer emphasizes that they hold no official affiliation with the PGA, and all referenced trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while prediction markets aggregate the views of many individual bettors. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment diverges from expert analysis. While direct comparisons require examining current odds on both sides, prediction markets can sometimes identify mispriced outcomes or incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, creating opportunities for informed traders.

Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi for the NW Arkansas Championship leader market can arise from several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to distinct market interpretations. Trading volume also plays a role; lower volume on one platform can result in wider bid-ask spreads and more volatile price movements. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for price discovery—how traders set the odds by buying and selling—may differ slightly between Polymarket and Kalshi, contributing to these observed discrepancies.