TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
KC
- Kalshi
KC - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Closed: Jul 10, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether KC will be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before the Week 6 elimination window closes. On Kalshi, the probability stands at 99.0%. Resolution is determined by official elimination announcements via broadcast, verified social media, or press releases from the show. Watch for the official elimination announcement before July 11, 2026, which marks the end of the betting period for this Week 6 elimination event.
Kalshi
A contestant is officially eliminated from Love Island USA: Season 8 if they are voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntarily withdraw, are disqualified, or removed by producers before July 11, 2026. Official elimination must be declared through the program broadcast, official website, verified social media accounts, or press releases. Multiple simultaneous eliminations each count as separate eliminations. If a contestant is initially eliminated but later returns to the competition, their initial elimination still counts. However, eliminations that are immediately reversed within the same episode do not count. Temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as runner-up in the finale are not considered eliminations. If the season is canceled without any eliminations being officially declared, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader sentiment and real-money incentives, often diverging from traditional analyst predictions or casual polls. While analysts may rely on historical patterns or contestant edit analysis, this market prices outcomes based on live trading by informed participants who face financial consequences for incorrect calls. Comparing current odds to published expert forecasts can reveal where the crowd sees edge or where consensus may be underpricing uncertainty. Prediction markets typically outperform individual analysts over time because they incorporate diverse viewpoints and update dynamically as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the Week 6 elimination episode airs and outcomes are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on which contestants are officially eliminated during the episode, as confirmed by the show's broadcast or official Love Island USA announcements. Traders holding contracts on eliminated contestants receive payouts, while those on remaining islanders see their positions expire worthless or carry forward depending on contract terms. The exact resolution timestamp aligns with when elimination results become publicly confirmed and undisputed.
Several catalysts can shift odds before the market closes. Contestant social media activity, public statements, or leaked footage hinting at vulnerability or safety can trigger sharp repricing. Voting patterns revealed in prior episodes or fan sentiment tracked across platforms often influence trader behavior. Surprise coupling decisions or dramatic confrontations shown in previews may alter perceived elimination risk. Additionally, real-world events affecting contestant popularity or narrative momentum—injuries, controversies, or unexpected alliances—can prompt rapid position adjustments. Close to the episode air date, anticipation and final positioning by large traders typically drive heightened volatility and volume.
