TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Sol
- Kalshi
Sol - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 20, 2026
Closed: Jun 19, 12:37 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether specific Love Island USA Season 8 contestants will be eliminated before the June 20, 2026 cutoff date. On Kalshi, Kenzie's elimination is priced at 1.0% and Caleb's elimination is priced at 1.0%, according to official broadcast announcements from Love Island USA: Season 8. Watch for the Week 3 elimination episode, where producers will officially announce which contestants are removed from the villa through voting, producer decisions, or voluntary withdrawal.
Kalshi
A contestant is officially eliminated from Love Island USA: Season 8 if they are removed from further contention before June 20, 2026, through any of the following mechanisms: being voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed by producers, voluntary withdrawal, or disqualification. Official elimination must be declared through the program's broadcast, official website, verified social media accounts, or press releases. Multiple simultaneous eliminations all count toward resolution. If a contestant is initially eliminated but later returns to the villa, their initial elimination still counts. However, eliminations that are immediately reversed within the same episode do not count as valid eliminations. Temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as a runner-up in the finale are not considered eliminations. Should the season be canceled without any official elimination declarations being made, the market resolves to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trading and aggregate the collective judgment of informed participants, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts. While entertainment analysts may rely on social media sentiment, fan voting patterns, or historical elimination trends, this market prices outcomes based on what traders are willing to stake. Comparing the implied probabilities here to published pundit predictions can reveal where the crowd sees different risk or where expert opinion may be undervalued or overconfident.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing different elimination outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects supply and demand; as new developments occur or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, moving the odds in real time. Higher trading volume typically narrows the spread between bid and ask prices, making it easier to enter or exit positions at fair value.
This market resolves around Jun 20, 2026, once the Week 3 elimination event has concluded and the outcome is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will confirm which contestant or contestants were eliminated during that episode, settling all positions based on the actual result. Traders should monitor official Love Island USA broadcasts and announcements to anticipate the final outcome.
Several catalysts could shift odds before resolution. Leaked spoilers or social media speculation about which islanders are vulnerable can trigger sharp repricing. Contestant behavior, coupling decisions, and viewer voting patterns—if disclosed—often influence trader expectations. Official previews or promotional clips hinting at drama or alliances may also move the market. Additionally, real-time discussion on fan forums and betting sentiment can create momentum, especially as the episode airs and elimination results become apparent.
