TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Love Island USA S8: Thursday elimination
kalshi

Love Island USA S8: Thursday elimination

Volume:
$1,146,264

Gabriel

 - Kalshi

Gabriel - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 20, 2026

Closed: Jun 18, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Gabriel

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$199,895
N/A
N/A
$181,585
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sol

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$199,591
N/A
N/A
$165,873
Settled
Yes
kalshi

NONE

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$182,146
N/A
N/A
$155,730
Settled
No
kalshi

Kenzie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$144,163
N/A
N/A
$134,117
Settled
No
kalshi

Jen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$125,088
N/A
N/A
$111,136
Settled
No
kalshi

Caleb

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$118,735
N/A
N/A
$99,599
Settled
No
kalshi

Corbin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,542
N/A
N/A
$41,118
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,824
N/A
N/A
$25,317
Settled
No
kalshi

Aniya

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,762
N/A
N/A
$24,470
Settled
No
kalshi

Sincere

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,262
N/A
N/A
$24,025
Settled
No
kalshi

Kayda

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,713
N/A
N/A
$20,359
Settled
No
kalshi

Zach

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,542
N/A
N/A
$12,862
Settled
No
kalshi

Melanie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,763
N/A
N/A
$7,749
Settled
No
kalshi

KC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,105
N/A
N/A
$4,777
Settled
No
kalshi

Trinity

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,133
N/A
N/A
$3,936
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether Gabriel will be eliminated from Love Island USA before June 19, 2026. The leading outcome currently stands at 99.0% probability. Love Island USA is a reality dating competition where contestants form romantic couples while living together in a villa, with eliminations occurring through public voting, islander votes, and producer decisions. Resolution is based on official elimination announcements from the show. Watch for the June 19, 2026 date, which marks the end of the betting window for this elimination market.

Kalshi

An official elimination occurs when a contestant is voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntarily withdraws, is disqualified, or removed by producers from Love Island USA S8 before June 19, 2026. The elimination must be formally declared through official program broadcast, the show's website, verified social media accounts, or official press releases. Multiple simultaneous eliminations all count toward resolution. A contestant's initial elimination counts even if they later return to the villa during the season. However, eliminations that are immediately reversed within the same episode do not count. Temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as a runner-up in the finale are not considered eliminations. If the season is canceled without any eliminations being officially declared, the market resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

The Love Island USA S8 elimination market dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for Thursday's elimination event. You can monitor current probabilities, view 24-hour trading volume of $1,143,442, and observe how trader sentiment shifts as new episodes air and contestant dynamics evolve. The dashboard displays the leading outcome alongside competing scenarios, letting you follow how the community's collective forecast changes throughout the trading period leading up to the event.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst predictions because markets aggregate dispersed information and financial incentives. While entertainment analysts may rely on narrative analysis or social media trends, this market prices outcomes based on what traders are willing to stake. Comparing the current odds to published expert commentary on Love Island USA can reveal where the crowd sees value that mainstream forecasters may have missed or underweighted.

This market resolves around Jun 19, 2026, once the Thursday elimination event concludes and the outcome is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on which contestant or group of contestants is officially eliminated during that episode, as confirmed by the show's broadcast or official announcements. Traders holding positions in the correct outcome receive their payout once the event is settled and verified.

Major shifts in this market could stem from new episode airings that reveal unexpected alliances, surprise eliminations, or dramatic twists affecting contestant popularity and safety. Social media sentiment spikes, official Love Island USA announcements, or leaked spoilers can trigger rapid repricing as traders update their forecasts. Additionally, voting patterns or viewer engagement metrics released by the network may signal which contestants face the greatest elimination risk, prompting traders to adjust positions ahead of Thursday's event.