TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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24H TRANSACTIONS:
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
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61%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Closed: Jun 28, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Love Island USA is a reality dating competition where contestants form romantic couples while living together in a villa. Throughout the season, the group votes to eliminate contestants who fail to secure romantic partnerships or are deemed incompatible with the group dynamic. This event tracks whether specific contestants are officially removed from the competition before the season concludes.
Kalshi
A contestant is considered officially eliminated from Love Island USA S8 if they are voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntarily withdraw, are disqualified, or removed by producers before June 29, 2026. Official elimination must be declared through the program's broadcast, official website, verified social media accounts, or press releases. If multiple contestants are eliminated simultaneously, each elimination counts separately. A contestant's initial elimination counts even if they later return to the villa during the season. However, eliminations that are immediately reversed within the same episode do not count. Temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as a runner-up in the finale are not considered eliminations. Should the season be canceled without any eliminations being officially declared, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money stakes and continuous trader updates rather than static published opinions. Analysts may rely on historical voting patterns or contestant edit analysis, while this market aggregates live sentiment from participants who profit or lose based on accuracy. When major plot developments air, market odds typically adjust faster than formal analyst updates, making them a useful real-time gauge of crowd conviction alongside expert commentary.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the implied probability that outcome will occur, ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents. As new information surfaces—contestant drama, social media reactions, or behind-the-scenes reports—traders adjust their bids and asks, causing the price to move. You can enter limit or market orders to position yourself before the elimination airs.
This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once the elimination event concludes and the outcome is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on which contestant or pair is officially eliminated during the Sunday episode, as confirmed by the show's broadcast or official announcements. Until that point, this market remains open for trading, and prices will fluctuate based on viewer speculation, leaked spoilers, and real-time developments.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before resolution. New episode previews or promotional clips hinting at drama or alliances may trigger sharp repricing. Social media activity, contestant interviews, or leaked behind-the-scenes footage can sway trader conviction. Unexpected injuries, rule changes, or surprise twists announced by producers will also drive volatility. Additionally, if fan voting patterns or historical elimination trends become public, traders may recalibrate their positions. The closer you get to the Sunday episode, the more sensitive this market becomes to any new information.
