TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 6, 11:37 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether a specific team will win the second half of a college football game by a margin exceeding various point thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different point differential, allowing for varied betting opportunities based on expected performance in the latter half of the match.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (excluding overtime) of the Louisville vs Ole Miss college football game scheduled for September 6, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for Ole Miss or Louisville to exceed in order to resolve to 'Yes'. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Only points scored in the second half count toward these markets, and Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA.
Generally, prediction markets and sportsbooks often arrive at similar probabilities, but they do so through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. If there's a significant difference, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event, or that new information hasn't yet been fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of trading occurs.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, which drives the price fluctuations you see on the dashboard. The more a particular spread is traded, the more confidence the market has in that outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second half of the Louisville vs Ole Miss game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. Traders will be able to see the final result on the Kalshi dashboard once it has been confirmed, and any outstanding contracts will be settled accordingly. The market will close prior to the end of the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Louisville or Ole Miss teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions that favor one team’s playing style, could also shift the market. Finally, any significant line movements at major sportsbooks could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust their bids and asks on Kalshi, impacting the overall price of the Louisville vs Ole Miss spread.