TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 12:31 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of a college football game between Louisiana and USC. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that must be exceeded by either team during that quarter to resolve as 'Yes'.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second quarter of the Louisiana vs USC college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. For markets where USC must win by a specified margin (e.g., over 2.5, 3.5, ..., 23.5 points), resolution occurs only if USC out-scores Louisiana by more than that margin exclusively in the second quarter. Conversely, markets requiring Louisiana to win by a specified margin (e.g., over 2.5, 3.5, ..., 10.5 points) resolve if Louisiana out-scores USC by more than that margin in the second quarter alone. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second quarter, disregarding any points from other quarters. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result of that specific quarter. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly as the event approaches. However, it's important to remember that sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows for direct peer-to-peer trading. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, information, or simply variations in market participants. Comparing this market to sportsbook lines can provide valuable insights, but they represent distinct perspectives on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual spread will fall within that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likely outcome. The most actively traded contracts indicate the spreads that the market currently considers most probable, and the volume provides a sense of confidence in those predictions.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second quarter of the Louisiana vs USC game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the Louisiana vs USC spread market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact the game's playing conditions, could also shift the odds. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role, though this market is driven primarily by trading activity. Unexpected developments during the first quarter of the game could also lead to rapid adjustments in the price of contracts for this market.