TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 11:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates various thresholds of points scored by both teams combined in the first quarter of a college football game. Each threshold represents a different level of scoring intensity that traders can speculate on, reflecting expectations about the game's early momentum and offensive performance.
These markets resolve based on the total points scored by both teams in the first quarter of the designated college football game. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined score exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first quarter. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, trading continues and resolves based on the actual result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The markets are independent of each other, each evaluating a distinct scoring threshold.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available or as public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into perceived probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Louisiana vs USC 1st quarter. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly informative and efficient market for forecasting the event's result.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the first quarter of the Louisiana vs USC game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official total points scored by both teams during the first quarter of the game. The platform will then determine the winning contracts based on whether the actual total falls above or below the threshold represented by the contract price at resolution. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Louisiana or USC would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's offensive style, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or coaching decisions might also shift market sentiment. Finally, general public perception and betting trends, as reflected in sportsbook odds, can indirectly influence trading behavior on Kalshi and move the price of this market.