TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 12:33 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of a college football game between Louisiana and USC. Each market corresponds to a specific margin by which either team could win the first half, allowing participants to bet on various possible outcomes.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the Louisiana vs USC college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. If USC wins the first half by more than the specified margin—ranging from 2.5 to 34.5 points—the corresponding "USC wins 1H by over X points" market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Louisiana wins the first half by more than the specified margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the corresponding "Louisiana wins 1H by over X points" market resolves to Yes. Markets remain open if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, resolving based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Only first-half points count toward resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade and express their beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate differing opinions on the teams' relative strengths or potential game-day factors. However, as game day approaches, these odds often converge as more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on whether the actual point difference will be higher or lower than the spread they’ve purchased. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by new information, expert analysis, and the collective sentiment of all participants trading on the exchange.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the first half result of the Louisiana vs USC game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official point spread at the end of the first half, as determined by official game statistics. The market will then pay out to contract holders based on whether the actual spread fell on the side of the contract they purchased. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. News regarding key player injuries for either Louisiana or USC would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also shift the odds. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before kickoff might also impact trader sentiment. Finally, any significant public analysis or expert predictions released in the days leading up to the game could contribute to price fluctuations in this market.