TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 6:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the third quarter of a college football game between Louisiana Tech and Baylor. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of points by which either team must win that quarter to settle the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential exclusively within the third quarter of the designated college football game. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the quarter by exceeding the stated point margin. All markets remain active if the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original schedule; otherwise, they resolve to a fair price. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the NCAA or ownership of related trademarks.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Polls and analysts’ predictions often align more closely with sportsbook odds, but this market provides a unique perspective based on real money at stake.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic creates a market-driven forecast of the third quarter spread in the Louisiana Tech vs Baylor game, constantly updating as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final third quarter spread of the Louisiana Tech vs Baylor game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. Traders will be able to see their contracts settled based on whether the actual spread fell within the range they predicted. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Louisiana Tech or Baylor teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact the spread. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale might also shift trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could signal new information and cause the market to react accordingly.