TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 11:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second half of a college football game between Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. Each market corresponds to a specific margin by which either team could win the second half, allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of dominance in the latter portion of the game.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (excluding overtime) of the designated college football game. For markets where Mississippi State wins by a specified margin, resolution occurs only if their second-half point differential exceeds that threshold. Conversely, markets for Louisiana-Monroe resolve if their second-half margin exceeds the stated threshold. All markets consider only points scored in the second half, with no overtime points included. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these conditions.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting volume, while this market allows traders to express their independent beliefs about the likely outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or as the event draws closer. Examining these differences can reveal where the market anticipates value or disagreement with conventional wisdom regarding the Louisiana-Monroe vs Mississippi St. spread.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, offering a forward-looking assessment of the game’s potential outcome. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, contributing to a potentially more efficient price discovery process.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second-half point spread of the Louisiana-Monroe vs Mississippi St. game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports authority, ensuring an objective determination of the winning spread. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The final result will be publicly available on Kalshi following the game’s conclusion.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Key injuries to starting players on either the Louisiana-Monroe or Mississippi St. teams would likely cause significant shifts. Unexpected weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the game’s dynamics and, consequently, the market. Late-breaking news regarding team strategy or player matchups could also play a role. Even significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks could influence trader sentiment on Kalshi, leading to price adjustments in this market.