TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 11, 8:34 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. Participants assess whether one team will win by a specific number of runs or more. The event provides different thresholds for victory margins to offer varied perspectives on the game's potential outcome.
The event encompasses four distinct outcome scenarios based on the run differential between the Lotte Giants and SSG Landers in their Korea KBO game scheduled for August 11, 2026. Each scenario specifies a different threshold for how many runs a team must win by for the corresponding market to resolve as 'Yes'. If SSG Landers win by more than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes. If SSG Landers win by more than 1.5 runs, the second market resolves to Yes, regardless of whether the margin meets the stricter 2.5-run threshold. Similarly, if Lotte Giants win by more than 1.5 runs, the third market resolves to Yes. Finally, if Lotte Giants win by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes, independent of the 1.5-run condition. Each market operates independently, meaning resolution of one does not affect the others. All markets are subject to the same game timing and Kalshi's disclaimer regarding affiliation with the governing league.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced outlook than traditional sportsbook lines, incorporating trader sentiment and real-time data. While sportsbooks set fixed lines based on analytics and risk management, prediction markets allow continuous adjustment. Traders can react quickly to new information, which may cause this market to diverge from standard sportsbook spreads, especially as game dynamics shift.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score will determine whether the SSG Landers have covered the spread, and the market will settle based on that official result.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions, or pitching changes could shift this market as they affect expected performance. Strong performance in earlier matchups between the teams may also influence trader sentiment. Any last-minute roster updates or changes to the starting lineup could cause rapid movements in this market as traders react to new information.