TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 7:05 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between two teams. Each market corresponds to a specific run differential threshold that determines the outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the game as it concludes.
These markets resolve based on the run differential by which either team wins the specified baseball match. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team exceeds the stated run margin—either KT Wiz winning by more than 2.5 runs, KT Wiz winning by more than 1.5 runs, Lotte Giants winning by more than 1.5 runs, or Lotte Giants winning by more than 2.5 runs—as defined in each respective rule. If the game is canceled, forfeited, or otherwise incomplete per official league determination, all markets resolve as 'No.' The markets are independent of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the odds here may move in a different direction. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges, as traders incorporate diverse perspectives into their assessments of the game’s likely spread.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price can fluctuate based on supply and demand, and the collective judgment of those trading on Kalshi determines the prevailing odds for the Lotte Giants versus KT Wiz spread.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Lotte Giants versus KT Wiz game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the KBO league, and will determine which spread outcome corresponds to the actual game result. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The exact payout amount depends on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the KBO spread market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Lotte Giants or KT Wiz could significantly shift the odds. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they affect pitching or hitting, are also important considerations. Unexpected lineup changes or tactical adjustments announced by either team’s manager could also move the market. Finally, major shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or widespread betting activity, could impact trading volume and price movements in this market.