TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 21, 9:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between the Lotte Giants and the Doosan Bears. Each market corresponds to a specific run differential threshold that determines the outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the game as it reflects which, if any, of these thresholds are met.
The markets collectively evaluate the run differential by which either the Lotte Giants or Doosan Bears win the specified game scheduled for August 21, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team exceeds the designated run margin—either 1.5 or 2.5 runs—for their respective victory condition. If neither team meets any of the defined margins, all markets resolve to 'No.' The resolution hinges solely on the official game result, and Kalshi disclaims any formal association with the governing league or ownership of related intellectual property.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to unique trader positioning and liquidity conditions. While sportsbooks may set a static spread, prediction markets adjust continuously based on trader bets and public sentiment. This can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on market activity and the flow of new information about team performance or player injuries.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set prices through their bets, which determine the current implied probability for each possible spread outcome. The platform’s pricing mechanism reflects the collective assessment of participants about the likelihood of each team covering the spread. Market depth and recent trading volume also influence how prices shift leading up to the game.
This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official game statistics and whether the favored team meets or exceeds the set run differential. Traders can monitor pre-game announcements and live updates for early indicators that may affect the final spread result.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions affecting game strategy, and recent performance trends can all shift this market. Traders will also react to pre-game news, such as lineup changes or pitching rotations, as well as any last-minute updates about player availability. As the game draws nearer, any shift in public betting patterns or analyst predictions may cause noticeable price movements.