TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury
kalshi
polymarket

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury

Volume:
$399,620

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury

 - Polymarket

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 10:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$352,530
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 173.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,922
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 177.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,107
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 176.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,813
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 175.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,648
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Game goes to overtime

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,802
N/A
N/A
$2,373
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 174.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 171.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 172.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$726
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,946
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group covers a WNBA matchup between the Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury scheduled for June 13, 2026. Kalshi offers a binary overtime market, while Polymarket offers a winner-take-all market with detailed postponement and cancellation rules.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing different events from the same game. Kalshi focuses exclusively on overtime occurrence, while Polymarket focuses on game winner with comprehensive contingency rules.Hero tip: These markets are not hedges of each other. A regulation-time winner on Polymarket does not correlate to Kalshi's overtime outcome. Treat as independent markets. Polymarket's postponement clause means it can remain unresolved longer than Kalshi if the game is delayed.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary overtime market. Resolves YES if overtime occurs, NO if game ends in regulation. No mention of postponement, cancellation, or winner determination. Quote: 'If Los Angeles and Phoenix go to overtime in the Los Angeles vs Phoenix women's professional basketball game originally scheduled for Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Winner-determination market. Resolves to Sparks or Mercury based on final score including overtime. Postponed games keep market open; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Quote: 'If the Los Angeles Sparks win, the market will resolve to Los Angeles Sparks. If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to Phoenix Mercury... If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for June 13 at 10:00PM ET: If the Los Angeles Sparks win, the market will resolve to "Los Angeles Sparks". If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

If Los Angeles and Phoenix go to overtime in the Los Angeles vs Phoenix women's professional basketball game originally scheduled for Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets reflect aggregated trader belief through continuous price discovery. This market's odds may diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because prediction traders incorporate real-time information, injury updates, and sentiment shifts more fluidly. Comparing the two can reveal where public perception on this matchup differs from professional oddsmaking.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances, which naturally produces price variation. Polymarket and Kalshi also operate under distinct regulatory frameworks and contract specifications—for instance, one may focus on the game outcome while the other tracks overtime scenarios. Timing of major news, platform-specific fee structures, and order-book depth can all widen or narrow the spread between venues, creating arbitrage opportunities for alert traders.

Key catalysts include injury announcements, roster changes, recent team performance trends, and head-to-head matchup history. Lineup confirmations closer to game day typically trigger sharp price moves as uncertainty resolves. Public sentiment shifts, betting syndicate activity, and updates on player availability can also shift conviction significantly. Monitor team news and Vegas line movements as proxies for where informed money is flowing on this matchup.