TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 12:09 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between two teams. The outcome depends on whether predefined thresholds of pass attempts are met by the designated players during the match.
The event evaluates multiple markets centered on passing attempts by two quarterbacks, Bo Nix and Matthew Stafford, in the Los Angeles R vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for September 27, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold (29+, 34+, or 39+ passing attempts) for each quarterback. If the specified quarterback reaches or exceeds their respective threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules ensure clarity and fairness in resolving each market based on actual game performance, while accounting for pre-game uncertainties regarding player participation.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Analyzing these differences can offer valuable insights into where the market finds value compared to traditional betting outlets for this matchup.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are essentially betting on their predictions, and the collective actions of these traders establish the market’s overall assessment of the likelihood of various passing attempt totals. The more a particular outcome is bought, the higher its price, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing attempt totals for the Los Angeles R versus Denver game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will reflect the actual number of passing attempts made by both teams combined during the game, settling the market based on the pre-defined ranges offered.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding quarterback injuries for either team would be a significant catalyst, as it directly impacts the expected passing volume. Changes in weather forecasts – particularly conditions favoring a passing or running game – could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, updates on wide receiver availability or defensive strategies employed by either team could lead to adjustments in the perceived likelihood of different passing attempt ranges. Game day developments, like early scoring drives, will also affect the market.