TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Dodgers or Padres?

Volume:
$132,688

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 10:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,322
N/A
N/A
$12,832
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Los Angeles D wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$89,806
N/A
N/A
$81,448
Settled
No
polymarket

Los Angeles Dodgers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

San Diego wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,559
N/A
N/A
$22,086
Settled
No
polymarket

San Diego Padres

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with multiple outcome options including draws/ties depending on the platform.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Scheduled game time mismatch (Jun 27 vs Jun 28, 8:40 PM EDT vs 4:10 PM ET) and fundamentally different market structures (Kalshi's tautological Yes-for-all outcomes vs Polymarket's categorical Dodgers/Padres/Draw branches).Hero tip: Cross-check MLB.com official schedule for the actual Dodgers-Padres game date and time. If Jun 28 is correct, Kalshi's date may reflect a postponement or data error. Polymarket's three-outcome structure is standard for first-5-inning markets; Kalshi's logic requires clarification from support before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market states: If Dodgers win first 5 innings, resolve Yes. If Padres win first 5 innings, resolve Yes. If tie, resolve Yes. This creates a tautological structure where all outcomes resolve identically, suggesting either a binary market (any game completion = Yes) or a data entry error. Game scheduled Jun 27, 2026 at 8:40 PM EDT.
  • Polymarket: Market offers three distinct categorical outcomes: Los Angeles Dodgers (if Dodgers ahead after 5 innings), San Diego Padres (if Padres ahead after 5 innings), or Draw (if tied after 5 innings). Includes explicit protocols for postponement (market remains open until 5th inning completed) and cancellation (resolves 50-50). Game scheduled Jun 28 at 4:10 PM ET. Primary resolution source is official MLB statistics or credible reporting consensus within 24 hours.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, scheduled for June 28 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the score at the end of the fifth inning. If Los Angeles leads after five innings, the Los Angeles outcome resolves Yes. If San Diego leads after five innings, the San Diego outcome resolves Yes. If the score is tied after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves Yes and all team outcomes resolve No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs with minimal intermediation. This market's odds reflect pure supply and demand from participants risking real capital, often revealing sharper early-game insights than traditional books. Comparing this market's implied probability to major sportsbook lines can highlight mispricings, though prediction market liquidity and sportsbook depth vary. Both sources remain valuable for bettors seeking complementary perspectives on first-five-inning outcomes.

Kalshi and Polymarket attract different trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, causing price divergence on identical events. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's binary structure and compliance model may appeal to risk-averse participants, while Polymarket's design draws sophisticated arbitrageurs and international traders. Order flow timing, funding availability, and platform-specific incentives create temporary mispricings. Monitoring both venues reveals arbitrage opportunities and signals which platform's participants hold stronger conviction. These differences typically narrow as the game approaches, but persistent spreads highlight genuine disagreement about first-five-inning probabilities.

Roster changes, injury reports, and bullpen availability can shift odds significantly before first pitch. Weather conditions at the stadium—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—affect early-game scoring patterns and favor certain lineups. Starting pitcher performance history, recent offensive trends, and head-to-head matchup data all influence trader positioning. Breaking news on player health, lineup adjustments, or umpire assignments may trigger sharp repricing. As game time approaches, this market typically tightens as uncertainty resolves and late-arriving information reaches traders, making early positions valuable for those acting on emerging catalysts.