TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the Dodgers vs. Padres first 5 innings?

Volume:
$85,323

San Diego wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

San Diego wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 11:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

San Diego wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30,837
N/A
N/A
$22,896
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Los Angeles D wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$35,835
N/A
N/A
$27,584
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,641
N/A
N/A
$17,580
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Los Angeles Dodgers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

San Diego Padres

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of an MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. Markets track which team is winning (or if the game is tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with resolution tied to official MLB statistics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Dodgers win, Padres win, tie) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), rendering the market fundamentally unresolvable. Additionally, the scheduled game dates differ between platforms (Jun 26 vs Jun 27, 2026), and Kalshi's binary Yes/No structure conflicts with Polymarket's three-way categorical structure.Hero tip: Avoid trading Kalshi's market due to the logical flaw. Use Polymarket's three-way market (Dodgers, Padres, Draw) as the authoritative framework. Before trading, confirm the correct game date and time on MLB.com, as the one-day discrepancy suggests either a data entry error or a makeup game situation that could affect both markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure with all three outcomes (Dodgers win, Padres win, tie) resolving to Yes. Scheduled for Jun 26, 2026 at 9:45 PM EDT. This creates a logical impossibility where the market cannot differentiate between outcomes.
  • Polymarket: Three-way categorical resolution (Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Draw). Scheduled for Jun 27, 2026 at 8:40 PM ET. Includes explicit handling for postponements (market remains open) and cancellations (50-50 split). Uses official MLB statistics as primary source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, scheduled for June 27 at 8:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Los Angeles D vs San Diego game scheduled for Jun 26, 2026 at 9:45 PM EDT will be evaluated based on which team has the higher score at the end of the first five innings. If the score is tied after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the same event through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a fixed margin, while prediction markets rely on continuous trader supply and demand to establish prices. This market's odds may diverge from traditional sportsbook lines due to differences in liquidity, trader composition, and real-time information flow. Comparing both sources helps bettors identify value and understand how professional consensus shifts as game time approaches.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, recent team form, and weather conditions at game time. Injury reports or late-inning roster changes can shift trader positioning significantly. Live market movement often accelerates once the game begins, as actual performance data—early runs, defensive plays, and pitching effectiveness—replaces pre-game forecasts. Monitoring betting action on related markets, such as full-game winner or total runs, can also signal shifting expectations for first-five-inning outcomes.