TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 23, 11:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market predicts the run differential between Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota Twins in their June 23, 2026 game, with thresholds for each team winning by various margins.
The market resolves based on the final run differential in the game. Minnesota outcomes resolve to Yes if Minnesota wins by more than the specified margin (e.g., Over 3.5 means Minnesota wins by 4+ runs). Los Angeles D outcomes resolve to Yes if Los Angeles D wins by more than the specified margin (e.g., Over 1.5 means Los Angeles D wins by 2+ runs). The run differential is calculated as the absolute difference between final scores, with resolution determined by which team has the higher score and by how many runs.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate the collective beliefs of traders betting real money on outcomes. This market can serve as a barometer of trader conviction relative to traditional sportsbook spreads, though direct comparison depends on which sportsbook you reference and current market conditions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each side of the spread outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the aggregate probability assigned by the market; as new information emerges or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, moving the price in real time. This dynamic pricing ensures the market continuously incorporates available information about the matchup.
This market resolves around Jun 24, 2026, once the game concludes and the final spread result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual point differential to the specified spread; the market will settle based on which side of that spread the final score falls. Resolution is automatic once the game result is confirmed and recorded.
Key catalysts include injury announcements to star players, lineup changes, recent team performance trends, and weather conditions on game day. Betting line movements at major sportsbooks often precede shifts in prediction markets, as do expert analysis and public sentiment. Breaking news about team strategy, coaching decisions, or player availability can also trigger rapid repricing as traders reassess the probability of covering the spread.