TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific quarterbacks will surpass various passing yard thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a different yardage benchmark that must be achieved by the named player to settle as 'Yes'.
All markets resolve based on whether the named quarterback, either Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, achieves the specified passing yard thresholds during the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo game scheduled for September 27, 2026. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome is determined solely by the actual passing yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent settlement methodology regardless of the yardage threshold specified.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. You may find that this market’s implied probabilities diverge from sportsbook odds, particularly if there is strong disagreement about the likely outcome. It’s common to see differences, especially as new information emerges and traders update their assessments. Polling data may also show a different view than either of these.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, meaning prices can change rapidly as new information or opinions surface. This creates a real-time assessment of the potential passing yardage total.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing yardage total for the Los Angeles C versus Buffalo game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official passing yardage statistics reported by the NFL will be used to determine the winning contract. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions for passing, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or changes in the game plan could also move the market. Finally, any significant shifts in public opinion or expert analysis regarding the likely game outcome could lead to adjustments in the prices within this market.