TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how often the starting quarterbacks for both teams attempt to pass the ball during a specific football game. Each market focuses on whether a particular player reaches a set number of pass attempts, providing insight into the offensive strategies and game dynamics.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing attempts recorded by the specified quarterback in the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills game scheduled for September 27, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the named player achieves the stated threshold of passing attempts. If the quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly on the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets in this event, ensuring consistent evaluation of outcomes based on in-game performance metrics.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can drive the price on Kalshi in a different direction. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate than sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome—in this case, the total passing attempts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective view of the market. A higher price indicates a greater perceived probability, while a lower price suggests a lower probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market is constantly updating its forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing attempts total from the Los Angeles C versus Buffalo game, as reported by official NFL statistics, will determine whether the 'over' or 'under' contract pays out. The exact number of passing attempts will be sourced from official game data and used to determine the winning side of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor running or passing plays, could also impact trader sentiment. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or adjustments to offensive schemes could also shift the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could also cause noticeable price fluctuations.