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Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$10,226

Los Angeles A -1.5 first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 11:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Los Angeles A -1.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,515
N/A
N/A
$3,413
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Los Angeles Angels

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Los Angeles A -2.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,290
N/A
N/A
$2,529
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Arizona -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,235
N/A
N/A
$1,117
Settled
No
polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Arizona -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,185
N/A
N/A
$1,171
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group captures prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of an MLB game between the Los Angeles Angels and Arizona Diamondbacks scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. Markets track which team is ahead after 5 complete innings, with variations in how the winning margin is defined across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-differential thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 runs) to define Yes outcomes, while Polymarket uses a margin-agnostic three-way outcome (team ahead, team behind, or tied). A 1-run or 2-run victory triggers different resolutions on each platform.Hero tip: Kalshi's market structure creates a hidden No outcome for close wins (1-2 runs). Polymarket's explicit Draw option and any-margin logic is more granular. Cross-platform traders should hedge: a 2-run Angels win is Yes on Polymarket but No on Kalshi. Verify game outcome margin before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure based on run differential thresholds. Resolves Yes only if the winning team's margin exceeds 1.5 runs (or 2.5 runs in separate condition). A 1-run or 2-run victory does not satisfy either threshold and would resolve No. Key Quote: 'If Arizona wins by more than 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three-way outcome structure (Angels, Diamondbacks, Draw) based on who is ahead after 5 innings, regardless of margin. Any lead, however narrow, resolves to the leading team. Tied games resolve to Draw. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Angels and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for June 16 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Angels" if the Los Angeles Angels is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the run differential at the end of the fifth inning of the Los Angeles A vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. Outcomes are structured around specific winning margins: Arizona winning by more than 2.5 runs, Arizona winning by more than 1.5 runs, Los Angeles A winning by more than 1.5 runs, or Los Angeles A winning by more than 2.5 runs. Each outcome resolves to Yes only if the specified team achieves the required margin of victory through five innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on real-time trader supply and demand, often reflecting sharper consensus than traditional sportsbooks because participants have direct financial skin in the game. Sportsbooks set fixed lines and adjust them to manage liability; prediction markets continuously reprice as new information arrives. For early-inning outcomes, prediction markets can be especially efficient since they aggregate live sentiment from many independent traders rather than relying on a single oddsmaker's model.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally produces price variation. Polymarket and Kalshi may also frame the outcome slightly differently—for instance, one might emphasize margin of victory while the other focuses purely on which team leads. Regulatory differences and user base geography can also influence how quickly new information gets priced in, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities for alert traders.

Injury reports, lineup announcements, and starting pitcher confirmations typically drive significant repricing in the hours before first pitch. Weather conditions, travel delays, and recent team performance trends also influence trader positioning. Once the game begins, each run scored, pitching change, or defensive play reshapes expectations for the five-inning outcome, so live action can produce sharp price swings as traders react to real-time momentum shifts.