TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 30, 12:12 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Cal Raleigh records at least 1 RBI (run batted in) in the Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners baseball game on June 29, 2026. An RBI is credited when a batter's action results in a run scoring.
Settlement is contingent on Cal Raleigh's participation status and plate appearances. If Raleigh is scratched or not in the starting lineup, the market resolves to fair market price. If he starts but records no plate appearances, it also resolves to fair market price. Pinch-hit at-bats do not count toward this market. Only if Raleigh is in the starting lineup and records at least one plate appearance will the market settle based on actual RBIs recorded during the game.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate beliefs from traders who have real money at stake on outcomes. This market may show different implied probabilities than traditional sportsbooks, offering opportunities for bettors who believe the consensus here is mispriced relative to conventional sports betting lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different RBI outcome ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The bid-ask spread reflects the current supply and demand for each outcome, and prices update continuously as new trades execute. Your entry and exit prices depend on the liquidity available at each price level, so monitoring the order book helps you understand execution costs and find optimal entry points.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final RBI count will be established after the game concludes and official statistics are published. Until that point, prices will fluctuate based on live game developments, team performance, and trader expectations about the likely combined RBI total.
Key lineup announcements, injuries to star hitters, and recent offensive trends for both teams will influence prices significantly. Live game action—such as early runs, pitcher changes, and clutch at-bats—creates real-time catalysts that shift trader expectations about the final RBI outcome. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and bullpen availability can also impact offensive production and drive market movement as new information emerges closer to and during the game.