TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 30, 12:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Rafael Devers bats for San Francisco against Arizona on June 29, 2026. These markets track the combined total of his hits, runs scored, and RBIs during the game. Only at-bats from the starting lineup count; pinch-hit appearances are excluded.
Rafael Devers's combined offensive production (hits + runs + RBIs) is measured across multiple thresholds (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+, and 5+) in the SF vs AZ game on June 29, 2026. Settlement requires Devers to be in the starting lineup and record at least one plate appearance. If he is scratched or not in the starting lineup, markets resolve to fair market price. If he starts but does not bat, markets resolve to fair market price. Pinch-hit at-bats do not count toward totals. Once Devers qualifies as a starter with at least one plate appearance, each market settles based on his combined hits, runs, and RBIs, with higher thresholds requiring proportionally more combined production to resolve affirmatively.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant pools and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market may show different implied probabilities than traditional sportsbooks, particularly if informed traders spot value or if public betting patterns differ. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus differs and highlight potential opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous trading where buyers and sellers set the odds by placing limit and market orders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see reflects the most recent trade, and as new information emerges or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, moving the market up or down. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to news, so periods of high activity typically produce tighter spreads and faster price adjustments.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on the final home run count recorded in the Los Angeles versus Seattle game, verified against official game statistics. Once the game concludes and results are publicly available, the market will settle based on whether the actual home run total matches the predicted threshold.
Several factors can shift odds in this market before it resolves. Lineup announcements, player injuries, weather forecasts, and recent batting performance trends all influence trader expectations around home run production. Trades by informed participants responding to breaking news can trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, as game time nears, updated odds from sportsbooks or shifts in public betting sentiment may prompt traders to adjust positions, causing noticeable swings in market probability.