TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 2, 10:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the run differential between the two teams during the first five innings of their July 2, 2026 matchup. Bettors predict whether one team will lead by a margin exceeding specific run thresholds in this early-game period.
Resolution is based on the run differential at the end of the first 5 innings of the professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. Seattle outcomes resolve to Yes if the Mariners lead by more than the specified margin (2.5 or 1.5 runs). Los Angeles A outcomes resolve to Yes if the Angels lead by more than the specified margin (1.5 or 2.5 runs). The leading team must exceed the stated run differential for resolution to Yes. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real capital on outcomes. This market may price the first 5 spread differently than traditional sportsbooks, offering traders an alternative view of the matchup. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus differs and highlight potential value opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks to buy or sell shares tied to the first 5 spread outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see reflects the most recent trade and pending orders, updating in real time as new information emerges. Shares typically range from $0 to $1, with the midpoint representing the platform's implied probability. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices adjust to news or shifting expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the first quarter of the Los Angeles versus Seattle game concludes and the final spread is verified. The outcome is confirmed using credible public reporting from official league sources and sports data providers. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once the event result becomes publicly available and verifiable.
Key catalysts include injury announcements, lineup changes, weather conditions, and recent team performance trends leading up to game day. Betting action and sharp money flowing into sportsbooks can signal where informed traders expect value. Breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions often triggers repricing on this market. Real-time game developments during the first quarter—such as early scoring runs or defensive adjustments—will shift probabilities as the outcome becomes clearer.