TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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24H TRANSACTIONS:
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OPEN INTEREST:
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255,512
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This event group tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional baseball game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Miami Marlins, scheduled for August 2026.
The market resolves based on the result of the professional baseball game between Los Angeles A and Miami scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 7:10 PM EDT. If Los Angeles A wins, its corresponding market resolves to Yes; if Miami wins, its market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed or delayed, the market remains open until the rescheduled game concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two days of the original date. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two days beyond the original date, the market resolves to a fair price following defined procedures. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
In the upcoming MLB game, scheduled for 2026-08-08 20:10 UTC: If the Los Angeles Angels win, the market will resolve to "Los Angeles Angels". If the Miami Marlins win, the market will resolve to "Miami Marlins". The result will be determined based on the final score including any extra innings. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or officially ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution Source: https://www.mlb.com/ Note: Opinion will resolve strictly based on the first officially published result from the designated source. Any subsequent revisions will not affect this resolution.
Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to speculative positioning and lower liquidity. Traders on Kalshi and Opinion may price in nuances like player injuries or weather impacts earlier than sportsbooks. The spread between prediction market implied probabilities and sportsbook lines can reach 42.3 at times, reflecting diverse participant motivations and information flows unique to each venue.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous trading, while Opinion uses a different participant base and rules. Kalshi and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Kalshi currently favors Los Angeles A vs Miami Winner? at 57.5%, while Opinion leans toward Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins at 99.8%. These differences arise from varying user demographics, market design, and timing of information incorporation across the two platforms.
This market resolves around Aug 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official game result, which is compared against the market's defined conditions. No further interpretation is needed beyond standard public records of the contest.
Injuries, weather updates, and lineup changes can all shift this market close to game time. Key moments like starting pitcher announcements or last-minute roster moves often cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi and Opinion. Traders will also watch for any unexpected developments — such as umpires’ decisions or stadium issues — that could affect the contest's outcome.