TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 24, 12:41 AM EST
Kalshi
The scheduled game features two professional baseball teams competing in a match that could extend beyond the standard regulation time. If the game continues into additional periods beyond the initial nine innings, it will be considered as having gone into extra innings. The outcome of whether these additional periods are played determines the nature of the event's progression.
If at least 1 extra inning is played in the Los Angeles A vs A's professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 23, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes be more efficient, particularly before significant volume builds in the prediction market. It’s common to see the odds on Kalshi converge with sportsbook lines as more information becomes available and trading activity increases.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether extra innings will occur. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders place orders, creating a real-time assessment of the likelihood of extra innings. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to incorporate new information and changing sentiment quickly, making it a responsive indicator of expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether extra innings are played in the Los Angeles A versus A's game. Official game results, as reported by major sports news outlets and the league's official website, will be used to determine the final outcome. The market will settle to 100 if extra innings are played, and 0 if the game ends within the regulation nine innings. Traders will receive payouts based on their positions and the final resolution value.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding potential starting pitchers, weather forecasts impacting the game, or even significant injuries to key players could all shift expectations. Changes in public sentiment, reflected in social media or sports news, can also drive trading volume and price movements. Any late-breaking information that alters the perceived competitiveness of the game or the likelihood of a close contest is likely to have an impact on the MLB extra innings market on Kalshi.