TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.9b

24H VOL:

$93,512,876

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,170,643,411

338,472

Markets across

33,488

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,292

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Time left: 04d:09h:12m

Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?

90%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for the GitHub outage length market, alongside 24-hour volume of $243. It visualizes how traders on Polymarket are pricing the duration of the longest GitHub critical incident in August, offering a live snapshot of market sentiment and liquidity.

Currently, this market shows a top outcome with a chance of 90.0%, reflecting trader expectations for the longest GitHub critical incident in August. These odds can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, which may rely on different data sets or assumptions. The market price captures real-time betting sentiment, while analysts often publish periodic reports.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The exact duration of the longest GitHub critical incident in August will be compared against the listed options to determine the winning outcome.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 31, 2026. Any new GitHub service disruptions, especially those lasting longer than previous incidents, would likely increase the probability of a prolonged outage. Conversely, consistent stable operations without major incidents would push odds toward shorter durations. Technical updates, staff announcements, or infrastructure changes from GitHub may also influence trader sentiment.