TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between VfB eSports and Team Orange Gaming in the Prime League 1st Division Regular Season, initially scheduled for April 3 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "VfB eSports" if VfB eSports win the match against Team Orange Gaming. This market will resolve to "Team Orange Gaming" if Team Orange Gaming win the match against VfB eSports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve fundamentally different questions. Kalshi markets resolve based on match outcome (winner determination), while Polymarket markets resolve based on specific in-game statistics (dragons, inhibitors, kills, Baron, quadra/penta kills). These are logically independent events with no shared resolution basis.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on match winner only. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on granular in-game events that occur regardless of match outcome. A team can win the match without slaying a dragon, destroying inhibitors, or achieving multi-kills. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes will correlate.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on match winner only. Both markets (Team Orange Gaming wins and VfB eSports wins) resolve YES if the named team wins the BO1 match scheduled for April 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. No in-game statistics are considered. Quote: 'If Team Orange Gaming wins the Prime League 1st Division 2026: Team Orange Gaming vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match originally scheduled for Apr 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on specific in-game events during Game 1 only, independent of match outcome. Six separate markets cover: both teams slaying dragons, both teams destroying inhibitors, any player achieving quadra/penta kills, total kill parity (odd/even), and both teams slaying Baron Nashor. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if both VfB eSports and Team Orange Gaming each slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 1.'
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