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404,175

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LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Who will win Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming?

Volume:
$5,554,828

Match Winner

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 25, 2026

Closed: Jul 25, 2:49 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,263,216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Match Winner

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$74,929
$119,850
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Game 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,412,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Game 1 Winner

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$40,883
$69,556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

ThunderTalk Gaming

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$55,003
N/A
N/A
$22,270
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,567
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

O/U 2.5 Games

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$20,798
$5,040
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

First Blood in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,966
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$1,905
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$304
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$296
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay a Dragon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Game 2 Winner

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$3,537
$47,672
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Game 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,242,576
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$19,871
$7,386
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 49

Intro

This market tracks whether any player will achieve a quadra kill in the best-of-three League of Legends match between Top Esports and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend. The current aggregated consensus probability for Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill? stands at 20.0%, with the same probability for Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill?. Data is aggregated from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, with resolution sourced from gol.gg. Watch the match on July 25, 2026, as this will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's Game 2 (Map 2) market contains a logical contradiction: it resolves to Yes for both possible outcomes (either team winning), making it unresolvable as a binary prediction market. Polymarket's equivalent market correctly structures Game 2 as a binary winner selection.Hero tip: Avoid trading Kalshi's Game 2 market—it will resolve Yes regardless of match outcome, creating no real prediction value. Focus on Polymarket's Game 2 Winner market for proper binary resolution. Escalate Kalshi market terms to compliance before any settlement attempt.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Game 2 Winner is a proper binary market: resolves to Top Esports if they win Game 2, or ThunderTalk Gaming if they win Game 2. Includes standard edge cases (game not played, series clinched, forfeit = 50-50). Source: gol.gg/esports/home within 2 hours, fallback to credible reporting.
  • Kalshi: Game 2 (Map 2) market resolves to Yes if either team wins the map. No explicit No condition provided. This creates a guaranteed Yes outcome regardless of which team wins, violating binary market logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 25 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the official result of map 2 in the specified LPL 2026 match. If the match or map is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time, the market resolves to fair market price. If the match or map is cancelled before play begins, or if a match is forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to fair market price. If a map is forfeited before any play occurs in that map, the market resolves to fair market price. If a map begins and is subsequently forfeited, the market resolves according to the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.

Predict

This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 25 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the LPL Group Ascend matchup market aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, showing how traders price the odds of outcomes in this best-of-three series. It displays total volume of $5,554,828 and 24-hour volume of $5,528,606, letting you see where consensus lies across venues like Polymarket and Predict. The view updates continuously, so you can monitor shifts in sentiment as the match approaches.