TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Game 1 Winner
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 22, 2026
Closed: Jul 22, 11:58 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group covers a best-of-three League of Legends match between Top Esports and Team WE in the LPL Group Ascend, scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. Markets span match winner, individual game outcomes, in-game objectives (Baron, Dragon, Inhibitors), player achievements (Quadra/Penta Kills), kill totals, and first blood across all three potential games.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All three platforms (Polymarket, Predict, Kalshi) apply identical resolution logic: official gol.gg within 2 hours, credible consensus fallback, 50-50 for cancellations/delays beyond 7 days/pre-series forfeits, and game-specific outcomes for completed matches.Primary resolution logic: Official gol.gg esports database (https://gol.gg/esports/home); credible video evidence and consensus reporting if gol.gg does not publish within 2 hours of match conclusion.Core resolution logic:
- Match Winner (Series): Resolves to the team winning the best-of-three series. If match is canceled, ends in tie, or delayed beyond 7 days without play, resolves 50-50. If match begins but incomplete and one team wins by forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolves to that team. If forfeit/disqualification/walkover occurs before series start, resolves 50-50.
- Individual Game Winners (Game 1, 2, 3): Resolves to the team winning that specific game if completed. If game is not completed for any reason, resolves 50-50. If game is never played because series was clinched before it was needed, resolves 50-50.
- In-Game Objectives (Baron, Dragon, Inhibitors): Resolves Yes if both teams achieved the objective during that game before stoppage. Resolves No if either team did not achieve it or if the game was never played/clinched before play. If game begins but does not complete via surrender, resolves based on whether the objective was achieved prior to stoppage.
- Player Achievements (Quadra Kill, Penta Kill): Resolves Yes if any player on either team achieved the kill type during that game before stoppage. Resolves No if no player achieved it or if the game was never played/clinched before play.
- Kill Totals (Odd/Even, Over/Under thresholds): Resolves based on total combined champion kills by both teams in that game. Executions do not count. If no kills recorded, game canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, or game never played/clinched before play, resolves 50-50. If game begins but incomplete, resolves 50-50 for Over/Under; for Odd/Even, resolves based on kills recorded before stoppage.
- First Blood: Resolves to the team securing first blood in that game if it occurred before stoppage. If game never played/clinched before play or first blood never occurred, resolves 50-50.
- Games Total (Over/Under 2.5): Resolves Over if 3+ games played (including forfeits/disqualifications/walkovers if match is completed). Resolves Under if fewer than 3 games played. If match canceled, ends in tie, delayed beyond 7 days without winner, or begins but incomplete with forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolves 50-50. If clinching game is forfeited, counts as completed match.
- Game Handicap (TES -1.5 vs WE +1.5): Resolves to Top Esports if they win 2+ more games than Team WE; otherwise resolves to Team WE. Forfeits/disqualifications/walkovers count if match is completed. If match canceled, ends in tie, delayed beyond 7 days without winner, or begins but incomplete with forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolves 50-50.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Series Clinched Before Game Played: If a team clinches the series (e.g., wins 2-0) before Game 3 is scheduled, Game 3 markets resolve 50-50. In-game objective markets for that game also resolve 50-50.
- Game Begins But Does Not Complete: For match winner and series markets: if one team wins by forfeit/disqualification/walkover during play, that team wins. For individual game markets: resolves 50-50. For in-game objectives and kill markets: resolves based on what occurred before stoppage; if objective not yet achieved, resolves No or 50-50 per market type.
- Forfeit/Disqualification Before Series Start: If a team forfeits, is disqualified, or walks over before any game is played, all series and game markets resolve 50-50.
- Match Delayed Beyond 7 Days Without Play: If the match is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date (July 22, 2026) without any game beginning, all markets resolve 50-50.
- Game Remade: If a game is remade, in-game objective and kill markets resolve based on the remade game only. First Blood resolves based on first blood prior to remake if it occurred; otherwise based on remade game.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and Team WE in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 22 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against Team WE. This market will resolve to "Team WE" if Team WE win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the official result of the complete match. If the match is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time, or if it is cancelled before play begins, or if it is forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins and is subsequently forfeited, resolution follows the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.
Predict
This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and Team WE in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 22 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against Team WE. This market will resolve to "Team WE" if Team WE win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate on distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on internal models and manage risk through margin; prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs directly, with prices reflecting collective expectations. Prediction market odds often react faster to new information since participants trade continuously, while sportsbooks may adjust less frequently. For this market, comparing the two can reveal whether professional oddsmakers and decentralized traders agree on the likely outcome, highlighting potential value or consensus shifts in real time.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally creates price variation. Polymarket and Predict may also have different market designs, settlement timelines, or user bases with distinct risk appetites. Information spreads unevenly across venues, so one platform may price in breaking news or team roster changes faster than the other. Arbitrage opportunities can emerge when prices diverge significantly, incentivizing traders to exploit gaps and gradually align the two venues.
Team roster changes, player injuries, or last-minute substitutions can significantly shift odds as traders reassess competitive balance. Scrim results, recent tournament performance, and patch updates to League of Legends may also influence expectations. Pre-match commentary from analysts and community sentiment can trigger price movement as new information surfaces. During the series itself, early game momentum, kills, and map control will drive real-time trading activity, with each game outcome reshaping odds for subsequent matches in the best-of-three format.
%20scale(0.82)%20translate(-12.5%20-12.5)'%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20fill-rule='evenodd'%20d='M9.619%2012.69h12.995a1.382%201.382%200%200%200%200-2.76h-3.932l5.298-5.405.032-.032L22.08%202.56h-5.255V1.38c0-.76-.619-1.38-1.38-1.38H9.81c-.76%200-1.38.62-1.38%201.38V11.5c0%20.657.534%201.19%201.19%201.19m12.995-2.186h-5.3l5.89-6.01-1.139-1.139-5.813%205.933V1.38a.806.806%200%200%200-.805-.806.806.806%200%200%200-.805.806v9.545c0%20.656.533%201.19%201.189%201.19h6.783a.806.806%200%200%200%200-1.612'%20clip-rule='evenodd'/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20fill-rule='evenodd'%20d='M14.393%2011.31H1.398a1.382%201.382%200%200%200%200%202.76H5.33L.032%2019.476%200%2019.507l1.931%201.933h5.255v1.18c0%20.76.619%201.38%201.379%201.38h5.638c.76%200%201.38-.62%201.38-1.38V12.5c0-.657-.534-1.19-1.19-1.19m.293%2011.31a.8.8%200%200%201-.788.805.797.797%200%200%201-.787-.805v-7.904l-5.69%205.928-1.113-1.139%205.764-6.005H6.884a.797.797%200%200%201-.787-.806c0-.444.353-.806.787-.806h6.638c.642%200%201.164.534%201.164%201.19z'%20clip-rule='evenodd'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=avatar}