TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for April 4 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against Invictus Gaming. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market on Map 1 winner resolves to YES for either team winning (logical contradiction), while Polymarket's markets require specific game completion and team-specific outcomes. Kalshi's resolution logic is fundamentally broken and makes the market unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Avoid betting on Kalshi's Map 1 market — it contains a logical error where both possible outcomes (Top Esports wins OR Invictus Gaming wins) resolve to YES, making it impossible to lose. Polymarket markets are resolvable and use standard BO3 logic with proper contingencies for incomplete games, forfeits, and delays.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Contains a critical logical contradiction. The market states 'If Top Esports wins map 1... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Invictus Gaming wins map 1... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means both possible outcomes resolve YES, making the market unresolvable and creating a guaranteed arbitrage opportunity. No contingency rules for incomplete matches, forfeits, or delays are provided.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard esports settlement practices: All 23 Polymarket markets use consistent resolution logic tied to gol.gg as primary source with credible reporting fallback. Markets resolve based on completed games with explicit contingencies: incomplete games resolve 50-50, forfeits/walkovers resolve 50-50 (except series winner if one team wins via opponent forfeiture mid-series), matches delayed beyond 7 days without play resolve 50-50, and remakes resolve based on remade game only. Each market specifies whether it requires game completion (e.g., 'Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined') or series completion.
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