TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Game 2 Winner
- Polymarket
Game 2 Winner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 13, 2026
Closed: Sep 12, 3:16 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of any player achieving a quadra kill in Game 1 of the League of Legends match between Team Vitality and Movistar KOI during the LEC Playoffs. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket, Limitless, and Kalshi is 100.0%. Resolution will be determined via data from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Keep an eye on the start of Game 1, scheduled for September 12, 2026, as the outcome of that single game will determine resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Discrepancies exist in tie-breaking and cancellation rules across platforms, as well as differing levels of detail regarding resolution sources.Hero tip: Prioritize Polymarket and Limitless markets due to their more comprehensive resolution guidelines. Exercise caution with Kalshi markets, as their lack of explicit tie-breaking rules introduces ambiguity.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to 50-50 for cancellations, postponements beyond the deadline, or ties. Primary source is gol.gg, with a fallback to credible reporting. Detailed rules for game-specific markets are provided.
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if either team wins. Lacks explicit rules for cancellations, postponements, or ties. Relies on the match result without specifying a primary source.
- Limitless: Resolves to 50-50 for cancellations, ties, or delays beyond 7 days. Includes provisions for forfeits and rebranding of teams.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Team Vitality and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Vitality" if Team Vitality win the match against Movistar KOI. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win the match against Team Vitality. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the result of the LEC 2026 League of Legends match between Movistar KOI and Team Vitality scheduled for September 12, 2026, at 11:00 AM EDT. If the match is postponed and does not commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, or if it is cancelled or forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins and is later forfeited, the market resolves according to the official result declared by the LEC governing body or tournament organizer. Kalshi is not affiliated with the LEC, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Limitless
This market refers to the LoL match between Team Vitality and Movistar KOI in the LEC Summer 2026, initially scheduled for September 12, 2026 UTC. This market will resolve to "Team Vitality" if Team Vitality win the match against Movistar KOI. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win the match against Team Vitality. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, or the team is renamed or rebranded, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more nuanced and aggregated view of potential outcomes than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while prediction markets are driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. This can lead to differences in probabilities, especially when there's significant public information or disagreement. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on team rankings, this market incorporates real-time sentiment and expert analysis from a diverse group of traders.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi are common due to variations in user base, trading incentives, and market-making activity. Polymarket may attract a different demographic of traders with specific expertise or biases related to League of Legends esports, leading to different price discovery. Additionally, the liquidity and volume on each platform – currently $6,619,416 overall – can influence price volatility and create temporary divergences. These differences reflect the independent nature of each market and the diverse perspectives of their respective participants, even though both are tracking the same event.
Several factors could significantly shift the predictions in this market. Any news regarding player injuries or changes in team lineups for either Team Vitality or Movistar KOI would likely cause movement. In-game performance during the series itself, such as a dominant early game by one team, could also rapidly adjust the odds. Major upsets in other LEC playoff matches, impacting team morale or strategic adjustments, could also influence trader sentiment and therefore the price of this market. Keep an eye on professional League of Legends analysts and commentators for insights.
