TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 5, 5:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether both Team Secret Whales and Top Esports will slay Baron Nashor during Game 2 of their best-of-five Lower bracket matchup at the League of Legends Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently stands at 20.0%. Resolution will be determined by official match data from gol.gg. Watch for the completion of Game 2 on July 4 at 11:00PM ET, when the Baron objective outcomes will be recorded and the market will resolve.
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Secret Whales and Top Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Secret Whales" if Team Secret Whales win the match against Top Esports. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against Team Secret Whales. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes using different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on their risk management and profit margins, while prediction markets derive prices from real-time trader activity and collective belief. For this market, prediction market odds often reflect a broader range of participant views and can shift rapidly as new information emerges. Sportsbooks may lag behind or diverge from prediction market prices depending on their operational constraints. Both venues can offer valuable signals, but they operate independently and may show different implied probabilities for the same event outcome.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker mechanism where buying and selling pressure directly moves the price. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability reflects what the market believes about the outcome, with prices updating continuously as new trades execute. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information. Higher trading activity typically narrows the spread between bid and ask prices, making it easier to enter or exit positions. The market price represents the consensus view of all participants trading on this venue at any given moment.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the best-of-five series concludes and the winner is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which team wins the required number of games to claim the series. Resolution occurs after the final game result is confirmed and reported by official League of Legends esports channels. No further trading occurs after the event concludes and the outcome becomes certain. Traders should monitor official tournament updates and broadcast schedules to track progress toward resolution.
Several factors could shift odds before the series begins or unfolds. Team roster changes, player injuries, or unexpected roster swaps could alter perceived strength. Recent tournament performance, head-to-head records, and meta shifts in the current League patch may influence trader sentiment. During the series itself, early game results carry significant weight—a 2–0 lead dramatically changes the probability of the eventual winner. Analyst commentary, expert predictions, and community sentiment can also trigger buying or selling pressure. Real-time performance in individual games will likely drive the most volatile price movements as the outcome becomes clearer.