TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Game 3 Winner
- Polymarket
Game 3 Winner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 28, 2026
Closed: Jun 28, 5:10 AM EST
Polymarket
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)
Intro
This market tracks the total number of kills across T1 and Team Liquid in Game 3 of their League of Legends Upper bracket semifinal at the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In. The aggregated consensus across Limitless, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict shows 100.0% probability for the leading outcome. Resolution will be determined by official match data from gol.gg. Watch for the match scheduled June 27–28, 2026, as the specific game-level kill totals will settle these contracts upon completion of Game 3.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi match-winner markets are scoped to MSI tournament victory, not the specific match result. All other platforms scope to match result only. This creates a logical contradiction: the same match outcome could resolve differently across platforms depending on the tournament's final outcome.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi match-winner markets as equivalent to Polymarket/Limitless/Predict. Kalshi requires T1 or Team Liquid to win the entire MSI tournament, not just this match. For all game-level, series-level, and match-level markets on Polymarket, Limitless, and Predict, rely on gol.gg official results within 2 hours; use credible video evidence and reporting as fallback.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Match-winner markets (items 1-2) resolve YES if the named team wins the Mid-Season Invitational 2026 tournament, not the specific match. Scheduled June 27, 2026 11:00 PM EDT. Quote: 'If T1 wins the Mid-Season Invitational 2026: Team Liquid vs. T1 League of Legends match... then the market resolves to Yes.' This conflates match outcome with tournament outcome.
- Polymarket / Limitless / Predict: All match-winner and game-level markets resolve based on the specific match result (T1 vs Team Liquid Upper bracket semifinal 2), scheduled June 28, 2026 4:00 AM ET. Quote (Polymarket): 'This market will resolve to T1 if T1 win the match against Team Liquid.' No reference to tournament-level outcome.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between T1 and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 28 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against T1. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the outcome of the Mid-Season Invitational 2026 League of Legends match between Team Liquid and T1 scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 11:00 PM EDT. The market resolves to Yes if either team wins the match. Standard tournament rules and match conditions apply as established by the Mid-Season Invitational 2026 organizers.
Predict
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between T1 and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 28 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against T1. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between T1 and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational 2026, scheduled for Jun 28, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 28, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares directly, with prices set by an automated market maker; on Kalshi, binary contracts are priced through order-book matching. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in liquidity, user demographics, and fee structures can cause temporary divergence. Polymarket attracts larger volumes and may reflect faster consensus on major esports events, while Kalshi's regulatory framework and contract design appeal to a different trader base. Additionally, each platform's community may weight recent scrim performance, patch changes, or player form differently. These gaps typically narrow as resolution approaches, but arbitrage opportunities can persist if one platform's liquidity is shallower than the other's.
Key catalysts include roster announcements or last-minute substitutions, which can shift perceived team strength. Scrim results or leaked gameplay footage circulating before the match often trigger repricing as traders update their models. Patch changes to League of Legends mechanics or champion balance may favor one team's playstyle over the other. Player performance in earlier MSI Play-In matches will provide live data on form and meta adaptation. Injury or technical issues affecting either squad could also move odds sharply. Media narratives around coaching adjustments, draft strategy, or head-to-head history may influence sentiment. Finally, betting volume spikes from professional or syndicate traders often signal directional conviction and can accelerate price movement toward resolution.