TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.1b

24H VOL:

$217,487,446

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,300,303,450

498,643

Markets across

13,761

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,763

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA
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kalshi
polymarket
Trending

LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Volume:
$2,704,987
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market refers to the LoL match between Shifters and Natus Vincere in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for April 26 at 10:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Shifters" if Shifters win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Shifters. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on forfeit/walkover handling and series-clinching scenarios. Polymarket's series market resolves to 50-50 if a team withdraws before the start, contradicting the binary win outcome. Kalshi provides no explicit forfeit clause and uses simple binary Yes resolution, creating ambiguity if the match does not proceed to completion.

Hero Tip:

Monitor official LEC/gol.gg announcements closely. If the match is canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, or ends via forfeit before play begins, Polymarket will resolve series and game markets to 50-50, while Kalshi's binary structure may not accommodate this outcome. If the series clinches early (e.g., 2-0 before Game 3), Polymarket game-specific markets correctly resolve unplayed games to 50-50; verify Kalshi does not lock in a 'Yes' prematurely. For maximum clarity, request explicit confirmation from both platforms on forfeit/walkover scenarios before settlement.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Polymarket: Series market (Q46-47) states: 'If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.' This contradicts the binary win outcome and creates logical ambiguity. Game-specific markets (Q1-2, Q44-45) correctly resolve to 50-50 if the game is not completed or never played. All markets use gol.gg as primary source with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting.
  • Kalshi: Series market (Q1-2) uses simple binary Yes resolution: 'If Natus Vincere wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Shifters wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' No explicit handling of forfeits, walkovers, cancellations, or delays. No fallback resolution logic provided. No game-specific markets listed, only series outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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