TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between paiN Gaming and Vivo Keyd Stars in the CBLOL Regular Season, initially scheduled for March 29 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "paiN Gaming" if paiN Gaming win the match against Vivo Keyd Stars. This market will resolve to "Vivo Keyd Stars" if Vivo Keyd Stars win the match against paiN Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution scopes. Kalshi's market (items 1-2) resolves based on whether the match is played at all, regardless of outcome, while Polymarket's markets (items 3-125) resolve based on specific in-game events and match results. Kalshi's binary YES/NO structure cannot align with Polymarket's granular game-by-game and objective-based markets.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket positions in this group. Kalshi bets on match occurrence only; Polymarket bets on detailed match outcomes and in-game statistics. A Kalshi YES (match played) does not predict any Polymarket outcome. Treat these as entirely separate markets with no correlation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's two markets (items 1-2) both resolve to YES if either team wins the match, making them functionally identical and redundant. The resolution logic is binary match-occurrence-based: 'If Vivo Keyd Stars wins the CBLOL 2026 match... then the market resolves to Yes. If paiN Gaming wins the CBLOL 2026 match... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means Kalshi resolves YES for any match completion, regardless of which team wins, creating a logical contradiction where both outcomes trigger the same resolution.
- Polymarket: Aligned with itself (no other platform shares this scope): Polymarket's 123 markets resolve on granular match-specific outcomes including individual game winners (items 4, 8, 20), in-game objectives (dragons, barons, inhibitors, kills, penta/quadra kills), kill totals with specific thresholds (items 50-125), and series-level handicaps (item 10). Each market has distinct resolution criteria tied to official gol.gg data. For example, item 4 resolves to 'paiN Gaming' or 'Vivo Keyd Stars' based on Game 1 winner, while item 50 resolves to 'Over' or 'Under' based on total kills exceeding 28.5.
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