TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a best-of-one League of Legends match between paiN Gaming Academy and RMD Gaming in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season, scheduled for April 21, 2026 at 7:00 PM EDT. Markets span both the match outcome and in-game statistics (kills, objectives, multi-kills) from Game 1. Resolution depends on whether the match is played in full, forfeited, or canceled.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket are resolving fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on the match winner (binary: paiN or RMD), while Polymarket resolves on in-game statistics (Penta Kills, Baron slays, Dragon slays, Inhibitor destruction, Quadra Kills, Kill parity). These are logically independent outcomes with no causal link.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on match outcome only. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on specific in-game events that may or may not occur regardless of who wins. Do not assume correlation between platforms—a team can win 2-0 without any Penta Kill, or lose while achieving multiple Baron slays. Treat each platform's market as a separate prediction.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Resolves to 'Yes' if either paiN Gaming Academy OR RMD Gaming wins the match. This is a simple binary match-winner market. Quote: 'If paiN Gaming Academy wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026... match... then the market resolves to Yes. If RMD Gaming wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates logical ambiguity—both outcomes trigger Yes, making the Kalshi market effectively a 'Will the match be played?' proxy rather than a true winner-picker.Polymarket:
Resolves on six independent in-game statistics: (1) Any Penta Kill, (2) Both teams slay Baron, (3) Both teams slay a Dragon, (4) Both teams destroy Inhibitors, (5) Any Quadra Kill, (6) Odd/Even total kills. Each market has its own 50-50 resolution clause if the match is canceled, forfeited, or delayed >7 days. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if any player on either team achieves a Penta Kill during Game 1. This market will resolve to No if no player achieves a Penta Kill.' These are outcome-independent statistics.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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