TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Match Winner
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Closed: Jul 20, 9:55 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of a League of Legends best-of-one match between Nongshim Red Force and KT Rolster in the KeSPA Cup Group Stage. The aggregated consensus across Predict, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless shows 100.0% probability for the leading outcome, with resolution determined by gol.gg. Watch for the match scheduled on July 20, 2026 at 3:30 AM ET to settle this event.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction (both outcomes resolve to Yes). Limitless uses a different delay threshold (31 days vs. 7 days). Polymarket and Predict are internally consistent but diverge from Kalshi and Limitless on scope and timing.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is unresolvable as written—do not trade it. For Polymarket and Predict, resolution is consistent: winner takes all, 50-50 on forfeits/walkovers/7-day delays. For Limitless, be aware the August 20 deadline is much longer than the 7-day standard; if a match is delayed 8-14 days, Polymarket/Predict resolve 50-50 but Limitless remains open.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Match winner resolves to the winning team (Nongshim Red Force or KT Rolster). Pre-match forfeits/walkovers resolve to 50-50. Matches delayed beyond 7 days without a winner resolve to 50-50. Source: gol.gg with 2-hour credible-reporting fallback. In-game markets (Baron, Dragon, Inhibitors, Quadra/Penta Kills, Odd/Even Kills) all use same source and 7-day delay rule.
- Predict: Identical logic to Polymarket: match winner resolves to the winning team; pre-match forfeits/walkovers resolve to 50-50; 7-day delay rule applies. Source: gol.gg with credible-reporting fallback.
- Kalshi: Critical flaw: market states 'If KT Rolster wins... then resolves to Yes' AND 'If Nongshim Red Force wins... then resolves to Yes.' Both outcomes map to Yes, making the market logically unresolvable. No 50-50 or tie-break logic provided.
- Limitless: Match winner resolves Yes if named team wins, No otherwise. Non-completion by August 20, 2026 23:59 UTC resolves to Other. Forfeits/disqualifications resolve to the declared winner. Deadline is 31 days post-match, not 7 days, creating timing divergence vs. Polymarket/Predict.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and KT Rolster in the KeSPA Cup Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 20 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win the match against KT Rolster. This market will resolve to "KT Rolster" if KT Rolster win the match against Nongshim Red Force. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the official match result published by the KeSPA Cup 2026 governing body. If the match is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time (3:30 AM EDT on July 20, 2026), the market resolves to fair market price. If the match is cancelled before play begins or forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to fair market price. If the match begins and is subsequently forfeited, resolution follows the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.
Predict
This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and KT Rolster in the KeSPA Cup Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 20 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win the match against KT Rolster. This market will resolve to "KT Rolster" if KT Rolster win the match against Nongshim Red Force. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Nongshim Red Force and KT Rolster in the KeSPA Cup 2026, scheduled for Jul 20, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 20, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets operate on crowd-sourced pricing: traders stake real capital on outcomes they believe will occur, and the market price reflects the aggregate belief of all participants. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which set odds to balance liability, prediction markets are driven by supply and demand. This often produces sharper, more efficient odds because traders have direct financial incentive to correct mispricings. For esports matchups like this one, prediction markets can react faster to roster changes, scrim results, and meta shifts than conventional betting venues.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, player substitutions, or injury news affecting either team's starting lineup. Recent scrim results and meta shifts in the League of Legends competitive patch can shift expectations significantly. Pre-match commentary from analysts and community sentiment on social media often influences trader positioning. Live in-game events—early kills, objective control, and team fight outcomes—will drive sharp repricing as the match unfolds. Any official statement from KeSPA or the teams about preparation or strategy can also trigger volatility in odds.