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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs
polymarket
predict

Who will win LYON vs FURIA Esports?

Volume:
$5,124,123

Game 2 Winner

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 3:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Game 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,561,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Game 2 Winner

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$28,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Game 3 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,213,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Game 3 Winner

View
N/A
N/A
—
$12,250
$13,729
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Game 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,194,044
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Game 1 Winner

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$29,337
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$728,218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Match Winner

View
N/A
N/A
—
$13,744
$18,054
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$96,663
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$82,850
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,958
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,383
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,059
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,638
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$415
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

First Blood in Game 3?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay a Dragon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 76

Intro

This market tracks individual game outcomes within the best-of-five League of Legends match between LYON and FURIA Esports during the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs Upper bracket quarterfinal. Across Polymarket and Predict, the consensus probability for LYON to win Game 3 stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official data from gol.gg/esports/home, with credible reporting and video evidence serving as fallback within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch for the match scheduled July 3 at 11:00 PM ET to see how the series unfolds and whether Game 3 is even played.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution source (gol.gg/esports/home), identical 2-hour fallback window, and identical edge-case handling for cancellations, delays, forfeits, and remakes.Primary resolution logic: Official gol.gg/esports/home; fallback to credible reporting and video evidence within 2 hours of event conclusion

Core resolution logic:

  • Match outcome (BO5) resolves to the team winning 3 games first; series length markets (O/U 3.5, O/U 4.5) count total games played including forfeits/defaults if match completes
  • Individual game winners resolve based on completed game result; if game not completed, resolves 50-50
  • In-game objective markets (both teams slay baron, both teams slay dragon, both teams destroy inhibitors) require BOTH teams to achieve the objective during that game; if either team fails or game is not played, resolves No or 50-50
  • Multikill markets (quadra, penta) resolve Yes if any player achieves the kill during the game; Penta Kill counts as Quadra Kill occurring
  • Total kills (odd/even) counts all champion kills by both teams; executions do not count; if no kills recorded or game not played, resolves 50-50
  • First blood markets resolve to the team securing first blood; if first blood never occurs or game not played, resolves 50-50
  • Total kills over/under thresholds resolve based on combined champion kills; if game not completed, resolves 50-50
  • If match canceled, delayed beyond 7 days without play, or ends in forfeit/disqualification before play begins, all markets resolve 50-50
  • If game begins but not completed via surrender, resolution based on state prior to stoppage; if condition not met, resolves No or 50-50 as applicable
  • If game is remade, resolution based on remade game only; prior state is disregarded

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Series Clinch Before Game Played: If one team clinches the series before a game is scheduled (e.g., wins 3-0 before Game 4), all markets for that unplayed game resolve 50-50
  • Game Begins But Not Completed: If a game starts but ends via surrender before completion, objective and statistic markets resolve based on state prior to surrender; if condition not met (e.g., no quadra kill occurred), resolves No or 50-50
  • Forfeit or Disqualification Before Match Starts: If match ends via forfeit, disqualification, or walkover before any game is played, all markets resolve 50-50
  • Forfeit or Disqualification During Series: If match is forfeited/disqualified during series after games are played, match outcome resolves to the team winning; series length counts games played; game-specific markets for unplayed games resolve 50-50
  • Game Remake: If a game is remade, all resolution for that game is based on the remade game only; prior state is discarded
Timing: Resolution occurs upon match completion (when one team wins 3 games in BO5). Individual game markets resolve upon game completion. If gol.gg does not publish within 2 hours of event conclusion, credible reporting and video evidence may be used. Markets resolve 50-50 if match is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without play.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against FURIA Esports. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win the match against LYON. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Predict

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against FURIA Esports. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win the match against LYON. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect pure trader consensus—what participants actually believe will happen. This market's odds emerge from supply and demand rather than a bookmaker's margin, often making them more efficient for identifying true probability. However, sportsbooks may offer tighter spreads or faster liquidity on major esports events. Comparing both sources helps you spot value: if prediction market odds diverge significantly from sportsbook lines, it signals where smart money sees an edge.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, fee structures, and liquidity pools, causing temporary price gaps. Polymarket may reflect a broader, more liquid audience, while Predict could see concentrated activity from esports-focused traders with specialized knowledge. Platform-specific incentives, promotional periods, or UI design also influence order flow. Additionally, slight differences in how each platform frames the outcome—whether focusing on the series winner or individual game results—can create pricing divergence. Savvy traders exploit these gaps through arbitrage, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays often prevent perfect convergence.

Key catalysts include roster changes, player injuries, or unexpected roster swaps announced before the match. Recent scrim results and team performance in earlier playoff rounds will shift trader sentiment as new information emerges. Meta shifts in champion picks or patch updates can favor one team's playstyle over the other. Media narratives around momentum, coaching adjustments, or head-to-head records also influence odds. Watch for live-match developments: if one team takes an early series lead, this market will reprice sharply. Esports-specific factors like player form, team chemistry, and international travel fatigue can all move prices as the event approaches.