TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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BNK FEARX
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Closed: Jul 20, 7:49 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether both Kiwoom DRX and BNK FEARX will slay at least one dragon each during their best-of-one League of Legends matchup in the KeSPA Cup Group Stage. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, and Predict, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for this outcome, with resolution sourced from gol.gg. The match is scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET, and resolution will depend on official in-game statistics recorded by that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Timeout window and fallback source divergence across platforms. Polymarket/Predict use 2-hour gol.gg window with consensus fallback; Limitless extends to August 20 with 'Other' resolution; Kalshi lacks explicit timeout specification.Hero tip: For Polymarket/Predict markets, prioritize gol.gg publication within 2 hours post-match. If delayed, secondary sources (video, credible esports reporters) become authoritative. For Limitless, monitor through August 20 deadline; 'Other' resolution is possible if no official result. Kalshi's Yes/No binary may resolve Yes regardless of winner—confirm with platform whether No is achievable.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: 2-hour gol.gg publication window; if missed, consensus of credible reporting (including video evidence) is permitted. Match winner resolves to named team or 50-50 on cancel/tie/7-day delay/forfeit. In-game stat markets (Baron, Dragon, Inhibitors, Quadra/Penta Kills, Kill Parity) follow same 2-hour rule and resolve 50-50 if Game 1 never plays or series clinched early.
- Predict: Identical to Polymarket: 2-hour gol.gg window with consensus fallback. Match winner and in-game stats use same timeout and 50-50 edge-case logic.
- Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure: 'If BNK FEARX wins... then resolves to Yes. If DRX wins... then resolves to Yes.' No explicit timeout, fallback source, or No-resolution condition specified. Implies all decisive outcomes resolve Yes, but No-resolution scenario is undefined.
- Limitless: Extended deadline: August 20, 2026 23:59 UTC (31 days post-match). If no official result by deadline, resolves to 'Other.' Forfeit/disqualification/walkover resolves to declared winner. No intermediate fallback source specified.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL match between Kiwoom DRX and BNK FEARX in the KeSPA Cup Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 20 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Kiwoom DRX" if Kiwoom DRX win the match against BNK FEARX. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX win the match against Kiwoom DRX. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the official match result published by the KeSPA Cup 2026 governing body. If the match is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time (5:00 AM EDT on July 20, 2026), the market resolves to fair market price. If the match is cancelled before play begins or forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to fair market price. If the match begins and is subsequently forfeited, resolution follows the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.
Predict
This market refers to the LoL match between Kiwoom DRX and BNK FEARX in the KeSPA Cup Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 20 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Kiwoom DRX" if Kiwoom DRX win the match against BNK FEARX. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX win the match against Kiwoom DRX. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Kiwoom DRX and BNK FEARX in the KeSPA Cup 2026, scheduled for Jul 20, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 20, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate on distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect real-time supply and demand from traders betting their own capital. Prediction markets often respond faster to breaking news and player updates, sometimes offering sharper or more efficient pricing than sportsbooks. For esports like this League of Legends matchup, prediction markets can capture niche insights from the gaming community that mainstream sportsbooks may lag on.
Key catalysts include roster announcements or last-minute player substitutions, recent team performance in scrims or prior matches, and meta shifts in the current League patch. Injury reports or visa issues affecting either squad could significantly shift odds. Community sentiment and expert predictions from esports analysts often influence trader positioning. Additionally, early tournament results from other KeSPA Cup Group Stage matches may provide context about team form, prompting repricing. Monitor social media, team announcements, and esports news outlets for developments that could reshape expectations before this market closes.