TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Team Liquid
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Closed: Jun 30, 6:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)
Description
This event group covers a League of Legends Best-of-5 match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational 2026 Play-In Lower Bracket Final, scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. Markets span match outcome, game-by-game winners, objective control (dragons, barons, inhibitors), kill statistics, and rare play occurrences (quadra/penta kills).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Match completion and forfeit handling differ between platforms. Polymarket distinguishes between pre-match forfeits (50-50) and mid-match forfeits (winner declared), while Kalshi and Limitless resolve to the declared winner in all forfeit scenarios without explicit pre/mid distinction.Hero tip: Monitor whether the match begins play. If Karmine Corp or Team Liquid is declared winner via forfeit/disqualification/walkover before Game 1 starts, Polymarket match winner markets resolve 50-50, but Kalshi and Limitless resolve to the winner. If the match begins but is incomplete due to forfeit, all platforms resolve to the declared winner. Game-specific markets are safer because they explicitly require that game to be completed.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Match winner resolves to declared winner if match begins but is incomplete due to forfeit/disqualification/walkover. If match is canceled or ends in forfeit/disqualification/walkover before starting, resolves 50-50. Game-specific markets (Game 1/2/3/4 Winner) require that specific game to be completed; if not completed, resolve 50-50. Objective markets (dragons, barons, inhibitors, kills) resolve 50-50 if the relevant game is never played due to forfeit or series already decided.
- Kalshi: Match winner resolves to Yes if the named team wins, with no explicit pre-match vs mid-match distinction stated. Forfeit/disqualification/walkover scenarios are not explicitly detailed in the provided rules, creating ambiguity about whether pre-start forfeits are treated differently from mid-match forfeits.
- Limitless: Match winner resolves YES if named team wins. If either team loses by forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolves to the team declared winner, regardless of match start status. No distinction between pre-match and mid-match forfeits. Market resolves to Other if no official result by July 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 30 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Karmine Corp. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the winner of the Team Liquid vs. Karmine Corp League of Legends match scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT at the Mid-Season Invitational 2026. The market resolves to Yes if either Team Liquid or Karmine Corp wins the match. The specific winner determines the corresponding market outcome.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational 2026, scheduled for Jun 30, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have distinct user bases with varying confidence in team performance or familiarity with League of Legends esports. Timing differences in order flow, platform-specific incentives, and variations in how each venue handles market depth can cause temporary price divergence. These gaps typically narrow as informed traders arbitrage between venues, but they create opportunities for users monitoring both platforms simultaneously.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, player injuries or substitutions, recent tournament performance, and head-to-head scrim outcomes. Meta shifts in League patch notes can significantly impact team strength assessments. Media coverage, expert analysis, and community sentiment on social platforms often precede price moves. Live match performance during the play-in stage will be the strongest signal; early map wins or losses can swing odds sharply. Monitor team statements and coaching updates for strategic adjustments that traders may reprice before the series begins.
