TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Match Winner
all
4 markets
Polymarket
Limitless
Kalshi
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
Closed: Jun 12, 10:15 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the total kill count in Game 5 of the League of Legends Round 3 match between Hanwha Life Esports and T1 during the LCK Road to MSI tournament. Across Kalshi, Limitless, Polymarket, and Predict, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for the Over/Under 30.5 kills outcome. Resolution will be determined by official gol.gg esports database data, with fallback to credible video evidence and consensus reporting if gol.gg does not publish within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch for the match scheduled on June 12, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET to see whether the teams' combined kill total exceeds or falls short of the 30.5 threshold.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All four platforms (Polymarket, Predict, Kalshi, Limitless) apply identical resolution logic: official gol.gg source with 2-hour publication window, 50-50 fallback for cancellations/forfeits before start/ties/7-day delays, and game-specific 50-50 for incomplete or unplayed games.Primary resolution logic: Official gol.gg esports database (https://gol.gg/esports/home); fallback to credible video evidence and consensus reporting if gol.gg does not publish within 2 hours of event conclusion.Core resolution logic:
- Match Winner: Resolves to the team that wins the best-of-5 series (first to 3 games). If match is canceled, ends in tie, or delayed beyond 7 days without a winner, resolves 50-50. If match begins but is incomplete and one team wins via opponent forfeiture/disqualification/walkover, resolves to the winning team. If match ends via pre-match forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolves 50-50.
- Individual Game Winners (Games 1-5): Resolves to the team that wins the specified game if that game is completed. If the game is not played (series already decided or forfeit before game start), resolves 50-50. If the game begins but is incomplete, resolves 50-50.
- Kill Totals (Over/Under thresholds per game): Resolves Over if total kills >= threshold+1, Under otherwise. If the game is not played or incomplete, resolves 50-50. If remade, resolution is based on the remade game only.
- Objective Markets (Baron, Dragon, Inhibitor, both teams): Resolves Yes if both teams achieve the objective at least once during the game; No if either or both teams do not. If the game is not played, incomplete, or the series ends before that game is needed, resolves 50-50. If the game begins but ends via surrender before the condition is met, resolves No.
- Multi-Kill Markets (Quadra/Penta per game): Resolves Yes if any player achieves the specified multi-kill; No if no player does. Penta Kill counts as Quadra Kill. If the game is not played or incomplete, resolves 50-50. If remade, resolution is based on the remade game only.
- First Blood (per game): Resolves to the team that secures first blood if it occurs. If the game is not played or incomplete and first blood did not occur, resolves 50-50. If remade, resolution is based on first blood prior to remake; if no first blood prior to remake, based on remade game.
- Odd/Even Total Kills (per game): Resolves Odd if total kills is odd, Even if even. If no kills are recorded, the game is not played, or is incomplete, resolves 50-50.
- Series Length (Games Total O/U 3.5 and O/U 4.5): Resolves Over if 4+ or 5+ games are played respectively; Under otherwise. Games won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover count if the match is completed. If match is canceled, ends in tie, or delayed beyond 7 days without a winner, resolves 50-50. If match begins but is incomplete and one team wins via opponent forfeiture, resolves 50-50.
- Handicap Markets (HLE -1.5 / -2.5 vs T1): Resolves to HLE if HLE wins 2+ or 3+ more games than T1 respectively; otherwise resolves to T1. Games won by forfeit/disqualification count. If match is canceled, ends in tie, or delayed beyond 7 days without a winner, resolves 50-50. If match begins but is incomplete and one team wins via opponent forfeiture, resolves 50-50.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Pre-match forfeit or disqualification: If a team forfeits, is disqualified, or walks away before the match begins, the match resolves to 50-50 (not to the winning team). This applies to match winner and all game-level markets.
- Mid-series forfeit or disqualification: If a team forfeits or is disqualified during the series (after at least one game has been played), the team that wins via opponent forfeiture is declared the series winner. Games won by forfeit/disqualification count toward series totals and handicap calculations.
- Game not played due to series conclusion: If the series is decided before a game is played (e.g., one team clinches 3-0 before Game 4), all markets for that unplayed game resolve to 50-50.
- Game incomplete (surrender or technical issue): If a game begins but does not complete (surrender, technical failure, etc.), game winner and all game-specific markets (kills, objectives, multi-kills, first blood, odd/even) resolve to 50-50, unless the market explicitly states otherwise (e.g., objective markets resolve No if the condition was not met prior to stoppage).
- Remake: If a game is remade, resolution is based on the remade game only. For first blood, if first blood occurred prior to the remake, resolution is based on that; otherwise, based on the remade game.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL Round 3 match between Hanwha Life Esports and T1 in the LCK Road to MSI, initially scheduled for June 12 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports" if Hanwha Life Esports win the match against T1. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match against Hanwha Life Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the outcome of the full LCK 2026 match between T1 and Hanwha Life Esports scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT. The market resolves to Yes for whichever team wins the match according to official LCK rules.
Predict
This market refers to the LoL Round 3 match between Hanwha Life Esports and T1 in the LCK Road to MSI, initially scheduled for June 12 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports" if Hanwha Life Esports win the match against T1. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match against Hanwha Life Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Hanwha Life Esports and T1 in the LCK 2026, scheduled for Jun 12, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 12, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are decentralized, peer-to-peer venues where traders buy and sell outcome shares directly. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, they have no house margin, lower fees, and prices reflect pure supply and demand. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit; prediction markets aggregate distributed beliefs. For this LCK matchup, prediction market odds often react faster to roster news, scrim results, and meta shifts because retail and professional traders compete in real time. Comparing the two can reveal whether public perception (sportsbooks) or informed traders (prediction markets) see different value in Hanwha Life Esports or T1.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Polymarket may have deeper volume in esports markets, drawing more informed LCK followers, while Kalshi might see different regional or casual participation. Timing lags between platforms mean one can move ahead of the other on breaking news—such as a player injury or draft meta shift. Arbitrageurs profit by trading the spread, but friction costs and withdrawal delays prevent instant convergence. These price differences persist because each platform operates independently; there is no unified order book. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricings and understand which platform's traders are more confident in Hanwha Life Esports or T1.
Key catalysts include roster changes or injury announcements affecting either team's starting lineup, meta shifts from patch updates that favor one team's champion pool, scrim results or leaked gameplay footage, coaching staff changes, and recent LCK regular-season performance trends. Head-to-head records and playoff history between Hanwha Life Esports and T1 also influence trader sentiment. Pre-match interviews, player form commentary, and analyst predictions from major esports media outlets can shift market prices. During the series itself, game outcomes, draft surprises, and momentum swings will drive real-time trading. Any roster or eligibility issues announced before the BO5 starts will create sharp repricing across both Polymarket and Kalshi.