TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Hanwha Life Esports Challengers and T1 Academy in the LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for April 3 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports Challengers" if Hanwha Life Esports Challengers win the match against T1 Academy. This market will resolve to "T1 Academy" if T1 Academy win the match against Hanwha Life Esports Challengers. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi's markets (Map 1 winner) resolve to YES for either team winning, making them logically incoherent. Polymarket's markets resolve to specific team outcomes or 50-50 based on match completion, cancellation, and forfeit rules. The two platforms cannot produce consistent outcomes for the same underlying events.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms assuming equivalent exposure. Kalshi's Map 1 markets are logically broken (both outcomes resolve YES). Polymarket's markets are standard binary or conditional outcomes. If you hold positions on both platforms, your hedges will not work as intended. Seek clarification from Kalshi before trading their Map 1 markets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's Map 1 resolution rule states 'If T1 Academy wins map 1... then the market resolves to Yes. If Hanwha Life Esports Challengers wins map 1... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means both possible outcomes (either team winning) resolve to YES, creating a logical contradiction. No NO resolution path is defined. This makes the market unresolvable and fundamentally incoherent.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard prediction market logic: Polymarket's markets resolve to specific team names (Hanwha Life Esports Challengers or T1 Academy) for match winner and game-specific outcomes, with 50-50 fallback for cancellation, tie, delay beyond 7 days, forfeit, disqualification, or walkover. Game-specific markets (kills, dragons, inhibitors, baron) resolve YES/NO based on whether the condition occurred during that game, with 50-50 if the game is not played or the series is clinched before that game. This follows standard binary and conditional resolution logic.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.