TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Game 4 Winner
- Polymarket
Game 4 Winner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 11, 2026
Closed: Sep 11, 4:33 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of various outcomes in the League of Legends match between GIANTX and Natus Vincere during the LEC Playoffs, encompassing everything from the first blood in Game 1 to in-game events. Currently, the consensus probability of “First Blood in Game 1?” occurring is 100.0%, as aggregated from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless. Resolution will be based on data from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? has a 40.0% probability. Keep an eye on the start of the series on September 11, 2026, as that will initiate the resolution window for these markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Differing resolution sources and handling of postponed/canceled matches across platforms.Hero tip: Prioritize Polymarket for comprehensive rules, especially regarding rescheduling and forfeits. Be aware of Kalshi's simpler ruleset and Limitless's 7-day rescheduling window.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves using gol.gg, with a 14-day rescheduling window. 50-50 resolution if rescheduled beyond that. Detailed rules for forfeits and remade games.
- Kalshi: Resolves based on the match winner, with no detailed rescheduling or forfeiture rules.
- Limitless: Resolves based on the match winner, with a 7-day rescheduling window and 50-50 resolution if delayed beyond that. Includes rules for forfeits.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between GIANTX and Natus Vincere in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against GIANTX. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins the designated League of Legends match. If the match is postponed and does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, or if it is cancelled or forfeited before play begins, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match starts and is later forfeited, resolution follows the official result from the governing body.
Limitless
This market refers to the LoL match between GIANTX and Natus Vincere in the LEC Summer 2026, initially scheduled for September 11, 2026 UTC. This market will resolve to "GIANTX" if GIANTX win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against GIANTX. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, or the team is renamed or rebranded, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit by balancing action on both sides. Prediction markets, however, allow anyone to express their belief, and prices adjust based on actual trading volume. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets may incorporate information not yet fully priced into sportsbook lines, or reflect different levels of expertise among bettors. It's often valuable to compare both to gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.
