TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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LYON
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 10, 2026
Closed: Jul 10, 7:09 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the total number of kills across both teams in Game 1 of the G2 Esports versus LYON Lower bracket semifinal at the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and Predict shows 99.7% probability for Over 24.5 kills. Resolution will be determined by official League of Legends esports statistics from gol.gg within 2 hours of the match conclusion, with credible video evidence and reporting as fallback. Watch the match scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT to see whether combined kill totals exceed the 24.5 threshold in the opening game.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All four platforms apply identical resolution hierarchy: official gol.gg data with 2-hour publication window, then credible video evidence and consensus reporting. Edge cases (cancellation, delay >7 days, series-start forfeit, mid-series forfeit, tie) uniformly resolve 50-50 or to the declared winner. Game-level markets resolve 50-50 if the game is never played due to series conclusion, forfeit, or walkover.Primary resolution logic: Official League of Legends esports statistics from https://gol.gg/esports/home; if not published within 2 hours of event conclusion, consensus of credible reporting including video evidence.Core resolution logic:
- Match Winner (BO5): Resolves to G2 Esports or LYON based on first team to win 3 games. Resolves 50-50 if match is canceled, delayed >7 days without play, ends in tie, or forfeited before start.
- Individual Game Winners (Games 1-4): Resolves to winning team if game is completed. Resolves 50-50 if game is never played due to series clinch, forfeit, disqualification, or walkover.
- Game Totals (O/U 3.5, O/U 4.5): Counts all games played including those won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover, provided match is completed. Resolves 50-50 if match is canceled, delayed >7 days, or incomplete with mid-series forfeit.
- Handicaps (G2 -1.5, G2 -2.5): Compares game wins with specified margin. Games won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover count toward handicap if match is completed. Resolves 50-50 if match is canceled, delayed >7 days, or incomplete with mid-series forfeit.
- In-Game Objectives (Baron, Dragons, Inhibitors, Kills, First Blood): Resolves based on completed game state. Resolves 50-50 if game is never played, canceled, delayed >7 days, or forfeited before objective could occur. If game begins but is not completed via surrender, resolves based on state prior to stoppage.
- Odd/Even Total Kills: Resolves based on total combined kills in completed game. Resolves 50-50 if game is never played, canceled, delayed >7 days, or no kills recorded.
- Forfeit of Clinching Game: Counts as completed match for game total and series resolution purposes.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Series Clinch Before Game Played: If a team clinches the series before a game is scheduled to be played (e.g., series ends 3-0 before Game 4), all markets for that unplayed game resolve 50-50.
- Mid-Series Forfeit: If a team forfeits mid-series (e.g., after losing Game 1, forfeits Game 2), the forfeiting team loses that game and the series continues. Game totals and handicaps count the forfeit as a completed game. Series resolves to the team that reaches 3 wins.
- Series-Start Forfeit or Walkover: If a team forfeits or walks over before any game is played, the match resolves 50-50 for match winner and all game-level markets.
- Game Remake: If a game is remade, in-game objective markets resolve based on the remade game only. First blood markets resolve based on the remade game if first blood did not occur prior to remake.
- Delay Beyond 7 Days Without Play: If the match is delayed more than 7 days from the scheduled July 10 date without any games being played, all markets resolve 50-50.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between G2 Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 10 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win the match against LYON. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against G2 Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Markets resolve based on the winner of the G2 Esports vs. LYON League of Legends match scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT during the Mid-Season Invitational 2026. If G2 Esports wins the match, G2 Esports-related markets resolve to Yes. If LYON wins the match, LYON-related markets resolve to Yes. The resolution is determined solely by the match outcome at the specified tournament and time.
Predict
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between G2 Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 10 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win the match against LYON. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against G2 Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between G2 Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational 2026, scheduled for Jul 10, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 10, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Polymarket may emphasize binary outcomes (win/loss), while Kalshi sometimes fragments into game-level contracts, drawing specialists who focus on shorter-term volatility. Regulatory differences, settlement timing, and platform UI also shape order flow. Arbitrage opportunities between the two can persist if traders lack capital or access to both venues, allowing temporary price gaps to exist even for the same underlying event.
Team roster changes, player injuries, or last-minute substitutions can shift trader sentiment significantly. Recent scrim results, patch updates to League of Legends, and head-to-head performance history all influence confidence in either side. Pre-match commentary from esports analysts and betting syndicates often triggers volume spikes and repricing. Live game performance—early leads, objective control, and momentum swings—will drive intraday volatility once play begins. Monitor team social media, coaching staff statements, and esports news outlets for catalysts that could reshape odds before the series starts.