TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 8:55 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether any player will achieve a quadra kill in Game 1 of the best-of-five League of Legends match between FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs. Currently, the probability of a quadra kill occurring in Game 1 on Polymarket is 19.0%. Resolution will be determined by data from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Keep an eye on the start of Game 1, initially scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, as the first game will be the deciding factor for this market’s outcome.
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal match between FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the match against Shopify Rebellion. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against FlyQuest. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds due to varying information sources and incentives. Sportsbooks incorporate a profit margin into their odds, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the market perceives information differently than sportsbooks, or that one venue has more accurate information. It's important to note that prediction market odds can be more responsive to new information as it emerges.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. The market’s efficiency depends on the volume of trading and the diversity of opinions represented among the traders.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results of the best-of-five series between FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs. The winning team, as determined by the official League of Legends broadcast and tournament organizers, will determine the settlement of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Unexpected announcements regarding player health or team strategies could significantly shift expectations. In-game performance during the series itself, such as dominant plays or surprising drafts, will likely cause rapid price adjustments. Analyst opinions and community sentiment, while not directly reflected in the market, can also indirectly impact trading behavior. Any news related to team morale or potential roster changes could also contribute to movement in this market.